I hear a lot of people bemoaning the lack of depth at the middle infield positions this year and I feel the need to apologize to second base. Shortstop deserves all your Fantasy ire. Second base is filled with some intriguing options.
In fact, when I look at my Second Base Rankings, I’d be pretty comfortable with any of the Top 20 options in my lineup. It is this depth that makes it completely unnecessary to take risks at second base; and risk is exactly why I see a few trendy picks as potential Fantasy Busts for the 2015 season. And remember boys and girls, a bust is any player whose price far outpaces their production.
Overvalued Second Basemen: Fantasy Busts for 2015
I expect these two players to be drafted higher than what their true values will end up being. In other words, here are two players I believe are overvalued for 2015.
High-End Bust: Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins
It’s amazing what the perception around a player can do. I write in-depth about Dozier and his path from Sleeper to Bust over on The Fantasy Sports Network, but suffice to say that I think his reputation seems to be writing checks his production can’t cash.
It’s not that I don’t think Dozier has Fantasy value. His improved on-base skills mean that he’s going to score some runs, and it’s not like he’s got any competition for his job in Minnesota.
He does have some things working against him though. First is that batting average. He’s got 1472 at-bats and in each of his three seasons (Ok, two-and-a-half) his batting average has been within six points of .240. That’s just who he is. So we’re already looking at one category that’s pretty much a given for negative value. Now look at what he did in the second half of last season. The OBP was nice, but five HRs and five SBs does not cut it. I realize that second half stats are not always predictive in nature, but when I couple that with his previous MLB career and some unimpressive Minor League numbers, it worries me more.
With just a little bit of regression, Dozier starts to look a lot like Asdrubal Cabrera. A few years back and that would be a good thing; not so much now.
So, while I don’t expect a complete bomb from Brian Dozier, I don’t think there’s a chance in Congress that he lives up to his current draft cost.
Back-End Bust: Arismendy Alcantara, Chicago Cubs
|2015 Fantasy Busts|
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Alcantara seems to be getting a lot more Fantasy love than I thought he would. I do like his nice combination of speed and pop, so I’ll overlook his .205 average of 2014. What I can’t get by though is the lack of a position. The addition of Dexter Fowler moves Alcantara out of center and for now the Cubs still seem ready to give Javier Baez a chance to work his way through his initial struggles at the Major League level.
There is talk that Alcantara could get some time at third base until Kris Bryant is ready. The thing is Kris Bryant can have his arbitration clock delayed with just three or four weeks in the minors. Unless he gets off to a terrible start, whoever plays third is just a fill-in.
So with no guaranteed position, Alcantara looks like a utility player that will get some time at a lot of positions, but not enough at-bats to be mixed league worthy.
This is definitely a situation to monitor as Spring Training gets underway, but for now, I can’t see Alcantara as anything more than a nice gamble in NL-only leagues.
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