Spring is here, as pitchers and catchers have reported for duty. Spring Training will provide plenty of answers to the various questions surrounding the start of the 2016 Fantasy Baseball season. However, since we need answers now, examining ADPs is a great way to prepare for your Fantasy drafts and auctions. Earlier, we looked at a four mispriced pairs of infielders. Today, we will undergo outfielder ADP analysis and uncover four mispriced pairs of outfielders.
Common sense says that you should pay the same price for the same expected production. That being said, human emotions can skew reality and this creates an opportunity for Fantasy owners. In order to take advantage, you need to prepare by first identifying the mispricing and then by remaining patient during your draft.
The rules will remain the same as we use ADP data from the NFBC drafts and the 2016 forecasts will come from the Zeile projections off of the Fantasy Pros site. We try to identify pairs of players that have an ADP gap of at least 50 spots overall. The player pairs must also have a similar skillset, as we will not compare a power hitter to a base stealer. Apples to apples evaluation is important since it makes for a cleaner comparison and is more useful as you think about building your Fantasy roster.
Enough with the preamble, let’s now find out who the 2016 mispriced outfielders are.
Outfielder ADP Analysis; Mispriced Pairs
Kole Calhoun, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (ADP: 113)
Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics (ADP: 214)
Both of these right fielders will be hitting in the heart of their respective team’s order and will provide some pop along with a decent batting average. Overall, Calhoun probably has a slight edge in power and therefore is likely to post the better home run, RBI, and run totals. Reddick’s speed and improved batting eye should allow him to gain a minor advantage in both stolen bases and batting average.
With an ADP gap that exceeds 100, Fantasy owners are pricing in plenty of risk for Reddick, probably due to his disappointing back-to-back injury marred seasons of 2013 and 2014. They seem to be forgetting about Reddick’s tremendous 2012 campaign where he mashed 32 bombs and swiped 11 bags. The fact remains that the differences in production will be small, yet the cost difference is large. If you take the A over the Angel, you will be the one wearing the halo.
Home Run Heroes
Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics (ADP: 122)
Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 186)
Both of these power hitters are not shy to grip it and rip it, which leads to loads of long balls coupled with a lot of strikeouts. Davis posted an incredible second half last year where he hit 21 home runs in just 71 games. You need to be careful extrapolating his stats over 162 games as his 24.5-percent HR/FB ratio for all of 2015 could be difficult to repeat. Now with the A’s, Park Factors will provide a further headwind for Davis in 2016. However, even before the move to Oakland, Davis seemed too expensive when compared to Trumbo.
Trumbo battled consistency in 2015 as he split his time between both the Diamondbacks and Mariners. Now with the Orioles, Trumbo should be in the lineup every day and he will be playing half of his games in hitter-friendly Camden Yards. He will attempt to regain the form he showed from 2011 through 2013 where he averaged over 30 home runs and nearly 90 RBIs. Given the floor and ceiling for both Davis and Trumbo are so similar, it is hard to get your head around the 60-plus ADP gap. Let others chase the preseason love of Davis while you stay calm and let Trumbo come to you.
Speed to Burn
Ben Revere, Washington Nationals (ADP: 104)
Billy Burns, Oakland Athletics (ADP: 154)
Many experts out there keep suggesting Burns as a cheap replacement for Billy Hamilton, I just don’t see that one. Most Hamilton forecasts have him stealing 60 bases, while Burns falls more in the 30 range, which is a huge difference.
Burns versus Revere is a much more appropriate comparison. Both have a good shot at exceeding 30 steals along with scoring plenty of runs and posting a solid batting average. Burns’ 2015 campaign would have been even more impressive when you consider that he didn’t play his first game with the Athletics until early May. Revere, who now joins his third team over the past 12 months, should also fit well at the top of the Nationals lineup. However, a five round gap in 12-team leagues is just too extreme of a price for essentially the same commodity. Catch the speedy Burns and let Revere pass on by.
AL East Encounter
Kevin Pillar, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP: 150)
Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 267)
Both of these slick fielding center fielders should once again provide their Fantasy owners with double-digit totals in both home runs and stolen bases. These players not only have nearly identical projections, they even share the same name! Check out these career stat lines, not too much to separate these guys.
Pillar may have a slightly higher floor due to the Jays far more potent lineup, which should allow for a plate appearance advantage. He also has a slightly better minor league track record. Meanwhile, Kiermaier and the Rays should benefit from offseason additions of Brad Miller and especially Corey Dickerson. He will also get a Fantasy boost if he is able to consistently hit leadoff in 2016, something he did 48 times last year. Anyway you look at it, a triple digit ADP gap seems excessive. Do not pay for the Jay, wait and snag the Ray.
ADP analysis is an essential tool in preparing for your draft. Knowing where players are being taken on average allows you to anticipate position runs and understand where the hyped players are being drafted. Having a successful draft is all about uncovering value, it is hard to win if you overpay for anyone. Next on the docket for the Mispriced Pairs Series will be Starting Pitchers.
Data courtesy of www.fangraphs.com
- 2018 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis: Mispriced Pairs; Pitcher Edition - March 13, 2018
- 2018 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis: 5 Mispriced Pairs; Infielder Edition - March 5, 2018
- The Fantasy Lookout: A Look Towards 2018; Sleeper And Bust Edition - September 20, 2017