When writing about the potential shortstop busts for this season, I must first preface what I consider a “bust.” A bust does not have to be a player that falls off the face of the Earth and hits .210.
A bust, to me, is someone who severely fails to live up to the price it took you to obtain them. So while a player may finish as the seventh best player at his position, if you drafted him as the second or third player off the board, then he was a bust.
This season, it is particularly hard to find shortstop busts. As I mentioned in my shortstop sleepers article, five of the Top 6 ranked shortstops are 23 or younger.
Of those five, three of them have less than a full season in the majors. These types of players are hard to get a figure on since there is no baseline set for what you expect statistically in a given year.
With that said, here are my shortstop busts for the 2016 Fantasy Baseball season. I have given you two players for Mixed League play and one each for AL-Only and NL-Only leagues.
Mixed League Busts
Jose Reyes, Colorado Rockies
One of the biggest factors I look for in possible busts is their susceptibility to injuries. Jose Reyes has played more than 133 games just twice in the past seven seasons. You can pretty much count on the fact that he will miss nearly a quarter of the season, just as last year he missed 46 games due to injury.
Some might point to the Coors Field factor for Reyes, but Rogers Centre in Toronto is not far behind Denver as far as hitter friendly ballparks go. Either way, once Reyes got to Colorado last season, his numbers took a severe downturn (he hit just .259, which is lower than his career low of .245 in his rookie season).
He has not stolen more than 30 bases or hit more than 10 home runs since his magical 2012 season, so you get nothing elite from him in any category anymore. Reyes is being drafted as the 10th shortstop eligible player off the board (129th overall). I would much rather take a longshot late and build some starting pitching depth at that slot.
Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
I may be biased as a lifelong Rangers fan … or I may know better than anyone that Elvis is a perpetual bust. Here we are entering Andrus’ age-27 season and he has five more career home runs than Carlos Correa did in less than 100 games last season. That’s over seven full seasons.
I know, you don’t draft Elvis looking for power, but he needs to provide something in that department. More importantly, his Rs, SBs and Avg have decreased both of the last two seasons. In fact, he had his lowest career batting average, runs scored and second lowest stolen bases of his career last season.
He also has gotten caught stealing 24 times over the past two seasons. This is not someone trending up like the majority of players at this age. Elvis is being drafted as the 12th highest shortstop eligible player, meaning a starter in almost every league. I will pass on that.
Deep League Sleepers
AL-Only League Bust
Ketel Marte, Seattle Mariners
Marte is a largely unproven 22-year old who is getting the nod for the Mariners. He is being drafted as the ninth AL-Only shortstop and I am stumped as to why.
He has never hit more than four home runs, stole 30 bases or hit more than 58-plus RBIs at any level of professional baseball. He does hit for a solid average, always right around the .300 mark and has scored a decent amounts of runs, but let’s think about his ballpark/lineup situation.
He is hitting in the cavernous Safeco Field at the tail end of a horrible bottom third Mariners lineup. He is slated to hit in front of Leonys Martin and whichever catcher is in that game, Chris Iannetta or Jesus Sucre. None of those three guys have driven in 50 runs in the past four seasons. I will pass on the hopes that Marte can salvage a solid average and a decent amount of runs scored.
NL-Only League Bust
Jean Segura, Milwaukee Brewers
In 2013, Segura hit .294 with 12 HRs, 44 SBs and 74 Rs during his first full season in the Bigs. In the two years since then, he has hit .251 with a combined 11 HRs and 45 SBs, while scoring less runs each year.
As I stated previously, I am more adamant about each of my starters scoring a decent amount of runs. How do you score a high number of runs? Well you need a powerful offensive lineup to hit within. Go check out that Brewers lineup and think about the division they are in; once they trade Jonathan Lucroy, there is a whole lot of nothing.
Segura is being drafted as the eighth NL shortstop off the board and I want nothing to do with that kind of price for someone who seems to be a below-waiver wire player.
|Early 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings|
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