Average Draft Position, or ADP is an invaluable tool to use in your Fantasy Football draft preparation.
A player’s ADP gives you a statistic of when he is most likely to be drafted. This can help you formulate your strategy if you are trying to gain the most value with each draft pick.
However, many Fantasy Owners do not use ADP correctly. It sounds stupid, but you can use the factual information provided in an incorrect way.
For example, looking at Standard ADP but you play in a PPR league. Or maybe you are using ADP data gathered from the entire summer to judge when Josh Gordon or Arian Foster might get drafted.
The key is finding the consensus data that is most relative to your league. You also need to realize that ADP is an average: it takes into account all extremes that a player might get taken.
Besides looking at the average spot that the player is taken, you should look at the sources of data (which platforms the drafts are coming from) as well as the high and low spots. For example, Adrian Peterson has a PPR ADP around 8th overall. If you play on Fantrax, his ADP is 6th. On My Fantasy League he is going 14th. The different rankings at the websites can drive these numbers as well as your own draft.
So keep your own league situation in mind as you analyze this ADP report from the beginning of August. I am going to compare the consensus Fantasy Pros ADP from June 29th with the data from August 1st.
2016 Fantasy Football ADP Report
|Player||ADP 6/29||ADP 8/1||Diff.||Player||ADP 6/29||ADP 8/1||Diff.|
|Gates, Antonio||142.7||111.5||31.2||Wilson, Russell||75||41||34|
|Powell, Bilal||144.3||118.5||25.8||Rivers, Philip||139.5||105.8||33.7|
|Thomas, Julius||118.3||94.3||24||Gates, Antonio||146||125.5||20.5|
|Foster, Arian||119.3||97.3||22||Newton, Cam||43.5||23.8||19.7|
|Smith, Torrey||131.1||111||20.1||Dixon, Kenneth||148.5||129.2||19.3|
|Prosise, C.J.||131.1||112.3||18.8||Blount, LeGarrette||138||118.8||19.2|
|Palmer, Carson||102.9||84.5||18.4||Rodgers, Aaron||47.5||28.3||19.2|
|Dixon, Kenneth||143.9||125.5||18.4||Sims, Charles||138.5||121||17.5|
|Woodhead, Danny||74||55.8||18.2||Jackson, Vincent||148.5||132.8||15.7|
|Johnson Jr., Duke||75.1||57||18.1||Gore, Frank||89.5||74.7||14.8|
- A common theme you will see with Average Draft Position is quarterbacks rising as the draft season goes on. The majority of “experts” wait as long as they can for their QB and this is what the early ADP is based off. Whenever the more recreational players start contributing, they drive the QB ADP higher.
- Both lists are filled with veterans who are former Fantasy Studs. This is another effect of the less involved Fantasy Owners taking names they know (Gates, Smith, Jackson, Gore) over the up-and-coming players.
- Danny Woodhead and Duke Johnson’s fast-rising ADP is probably due to people not realizing just how good they were in PPR formats last season (3rd and 23rd among backs last year).
- Arian Foster is rising faster with PPR Average Draft Position because he was originally seen as the 3rd-down back in Miami. This could change more drastically as his training camp looks better and better.
- I only included the Top 150 from the first set of data, which Josh Gordon was not within. Currently, his ADP is all over the place, ranging from 77 on one site, to 134 on another. He will definitely keep rising though.
|Player||ADP 6/29||ADP 8/1||Diff.||Player||ADP 6/29||ADP 8/1||Diff.|
|Williams, Karlos||74.3||122.3||-48||Ebron, Eric||109.5||162||-52.5|
|Perriman, Breshad||140.9||175||-34.1||Aiken, Kamar||116||156.8||-40.8|
|Johnson, Chris||146.3||173.5||-27.2||Williams, Karlos||68||105.5||-37.5|
|Booker, Devontae||135.6||161.5||-25.9||Thomas, Michael||120||155.8||-35.8|
|Gostkowski, Stephen||120||145.7||-25.7||Riddick, Theo||89||124.4||-35.4|
|Thomas, Michael||128.6||151.3||-22.7||Perriman, Breshad||133.5||168.5||-35|
|Hill, Jeremy||52.6||73.3||-20.7||Cruz, Victor||134.5||167.6||-33.1|
|Riddick, Theo||73.6||92.3||-18.7||Benjamin, Travis||105||133.8||-28.8|
|Diggs, Stefon||93.6||111||-17.4||Treadwell, Laquon||98.5||123.2||-24.7|
|Crabtree, Michael||59||75.5||-16.5||Doctson, Josh||111||135.5||-24.5|
- Karlos Williams obviously stands out as he was dealt a 4-game suspension and showed up to camp looking like he was on the Eddie Lacy diet from last year.
- The uncertainty surrounding the Ravens’ wide receivers is shown here with both Perriman and Aiken taking Average Draft Position tumbles.
- Rookie receivers are all over these lists. A good amount of “experts” like to tout the rookie receivers so that they can say they were “first” to like them. This drives their early ADP up.
- Victor Cruz’ inclusion is not surprising as he looks less and less likely to contribute much this season.
- It appears people are buying the Ameer Abdullah Kool-Aid again as Theo Riddick appears on both lists. Riddick finished as RB18 last year in PPR and finished with 830 yards on just 123 touches.
- The Eric Ebron free fall is surprising. I really have no clue why he has fallen so far, but I think he is a solid value now.
These are players whose consensus ADP does not tell the whole story. They have large gaps between their ADP on different sites/platforms, which can be misleading.
|Rounds 1-4||Rounds 5-8|
|Player Name||High||Low||Diff.||Player Name||High||Low||Diff.|
|Donte Moncrief||64||38||26||Sterling Shepard||122||83||39|
|Larry Fitzgerald||58||40||18||Tyler Eifert||88||50||38|
|Greg Olsen||53||38||15||Carson Palmer||104||68||36|
|Aaron Rodgers||52||38||14||Zach Ertz||114||78||36|
|Jordan Matthews||59||47||12||Corey Coleman||113||78||35|
|Jordan Reed||42||32||10||Blake Bortles||110||77||33|
|T.Y. Hilton||33||24||9||Eli Manning||112||79||33|
|Jeremy Maclin||43||34||9||Tom Brady||100||70||30|
|Eric Decker||57||48||9||Delanie Walker||77||50||27|
|Adrian Peterson||14||6||8||Tyler Lockett||86||59||27|
- Naturally, as you get later in the draft, the difference between different platform’s ADP grows exponentially.
- Adrian Peterson is the only player consistently drafted in the first two rounds with a big disparity.
- The lists are littered with young receivers on the verge of breaking out, whether they are rookies (Shepard, Coleman) or guys expected to get bigger roles (Moncrief, Lockett).
- Tight ends seem to cause the biggest disparities in Average Draft Position. All three types of list have included several tight ends. I think this has to do with the different uses for the TE position in regards to roster/scoring. Some leagues start two of them while some give them a full point per reception and everyone else 0.5 points. This is where using an ADP geared toward your league is critical.
- Josh Gordon should fit here, but his consensus ADP is so out of whack, it is not worth using yet.
- I would bet Tom Brady has the most variance within the different websites as well. I have seen him go in the Rounds 3 and 4 in mocks, but I can promise he does not slip past me in the 7th.
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