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What do Wide Receiver Busts look like?

Might be easier if we talked about what it doesn’t look like. First off, any WR taken in the 10th round or later might be a disappointment. But that is not a “WR bust.” A WR taken at that point is likely taken as a bye-week replacement or to provide depth. While I think those taking Josh Gordon (current ADP is late 10th round) are wasting their 10th round pick, the cost of doing so is minimal.

While a WR bust is almost assuredly likely to regress, it is not the same as a regression candidate either. For example, the Fantasy community is pretty much in agreement that Doug Baldwin is going to regress this year. Baldwin was the 10th best WR last year, but is currently the 23rd best WR being drafted. His expected regression is already baked into his draft slot. Therefore, I don't expect Baldwin to be a WR bust.

This doesn’t mean a regression candidate can’t be a bust also. There are other WRs whose regression tendency is already included in their cost, but unlike the case of Baldwin, there is not enough of a “discount” and I consider them a likely WR bust. A WR Bust is the player you are going to look at after the season and really wish you hadn’t picked them when you did.

Here are my forecasted failures:

 

2016 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts

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Brandon Marshall, New York Jets (ADP: 25.7)

Whether Ryan Fitzpatrick throws him the ball or not, a regression is coming. You know how many WRs have caught 14 TDs or more in back to back years? Let’s put it this way–Randy Moss never did it. Calvin Johnson never did it. Even the great Jerry Rice never did it. You think Marshall will?

Marshall’s career average is single digit touchdowns. He’ll probably get to double digits, but expecting even a dozen TDs is way too optimistic.

But it’s not just the TDs. Marshall had 10 games with 100-plus yards last year. The previous three years he averaged five games of 100-plus yards (his average previous to that is even worse). You see the drop coming, right? Now throw in someone under center besides Fitzpatrick and things could get very ugly.

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Brandon Marshall, New York Jets (ADP: 25.7)

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