55 Observations Based Off Recent Fantasy Football History

I know, everyone and their mama has one of these columns at some point during the summer. However, what I am trying to do differently is use year-over-year Fantasy Football history charts to actually show where I’m pulling my observations from.

I feel like we all have thoughts and opinions on players after a season and we just carry those into the next year’s draft preparation. We don’t spend enough time looking back at what actually happened.

I bet you that the majority of Fantasy Football owners do not realize that Duke Johnson finished as the 11th-highest scoring running back in PPR scoring last season or that Marvin Jones was the WR12. Unless you had multiple shares of these players, these two finishing that high skirted your thoughts on them. Hence the reason that Jones is currently being taken as the 25th receiver off the board and Duke Johnson is being drafted after THIRTY-NINE other running backs.

I get it, there have been changes to both of their situations. But especially in Johnson’s situation, those changes are not enough for that type of fall. The Browns added weapons, but both Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb seem to do what Isaiah Crowell was already doing (early-down, short yardage, etc.) leaving Duke in the same scheme script.

So basically I just wanted to portray how our preconceived notions can alter our perceptions on players going forward. In Fantasy Football, sometimes we need to look back and learn from history before preparing for our future drafts.

Year-Over-Year Consistency

I started this research simply to see which positions and players had the most year-over-year consistency. Once I started making the chart, I started making observations as I was inputting the data. This led me to try and kill two birds with one spreadsheet.

I wanted to find out which players and positions had consistency in their recent Fantasy Football history. So I basically compiled the Top 24 scorers at both running back and wide receiver, and Top 12 scorers for both quarterbacks and tight ends over the last six seasons. I noted their final ranking at the position, total points scored, games played, and Fantasy Points per game.

I made sure to include each player’s seasonal stats when they did not finish at the top end of their position as well. This was all with the basic Points Per Reception scoring.

To qualify as an “RB1/WR1” the player finished in the Top 12 at the position. To qualify as an “RB2/WR2” the player finished between 13th and 24th at the position. I cut the numbers in half for quarterbacks and tight ends.

55 Fantasy Football Observations

Recent Fantasy Football History: Quarterbacks

• • Only two quarterbacks quarterbacks have finished in the Top 10 at the position in total points each of the last six seasons: Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford.
  • The only quarterback that has been Top 8 each of the past three years… Kirk Cousins.
  • Only five QB’s have been at least a QB13 each of the past 3 seasons: Brees, Russell Wilson, Cousins, Stafford and…. Blake Bortles.
  • Joe Flacco and Jameis Winston have combined for ZERO Top-12 finishes at the position.

Ravens tinkering with Lamar Jackson and Joe Flacco in two-QB sets https://t.co/UlqbN4gOjV pic.twitter.com/bkj5RQQIMN

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) June 13, 2018

• The only two quarterbacks to have started each of the last four seasons and have zero Top-12 finishes are Flacco and Andy Dalton.
• In the past six seasons, Cam Newton has four Top-4 finishes… and two finishes outside of the Top 16.
• Cam Newton is the only QB  to play in at least half of his team’s games and never average lower than 17 points per  game.
• How stats can be skewed: I can say that Tom Brady has only been a Top-8 QB in only two of the last five years… or I can say that he has been Top 5 in points per game in each of the last three years.
• Wilson, Stafford, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers are the only QB’s to play all 16 games in each of the last six seasons.
• I know it’s a small sample size, but Deshaun Watson’s 24.1 points per game is the third highest average in the past six years only trailing Cam Newton’s MVP year in 2015 and Peyton Manning’s historic 2013.
• Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback to average at least 18 points per game every year.
• 10 of the 30 QB1 seasons were followed with another QB1 year by the same player.
• 6 other players followed up their QB1 season with a QB2 year.
• Overall, 30 of the 60 QB1’s/QB2’s followed up their season with another finish in the Top 12.
• So 14 out of 30, 47%, of QB1’s were non-starters the following season.
• The last three times Andrew Luck has been healthy enough to play, he has been a Top-4 QB.

Recent Fantasy Football History: Running Backs

• • Only five running backs have finished in the Top-30 at the position in total PPR points each of the last three seasons with the same team: Todd Gurley, Mark Ingram, LeSean McCoy…. And Duke Johnson and Theo Riddick.
  • There were 21 times that a RB1 season was followed up with another RB1 year.
  • 15 other times a RB1 year was followed by an RB2 season.
  • So 40% of the time an RB1 was a non-starter the following season.
  • Mark Ingram is the only player to finish as an RB1 each of the last three years.
  • LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore are the only two backs to finish in the Top 24 each of the past six years.
  • There were four rookie  RB1’s last season. However, there were only six in the previous four seasons combined (2 in 2016, 2 in 2015, 1 in 2014 and 1 in 2013).
  • Only Frank Gore and Duke Johnson have played in all 16 games each of the past three seasons.

The Browns were wise to extend versatile running back Duke Johnson’s contract:https://t.co/sIWZTP1mCm pic.twitter.com/J5PRPspDOj

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) June 10, 2018

• LeVeon Bell’s PPG ranking starting last year going back towards his rookie season: 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st and 9th in his rookie season.
• Alvin Kamara’s 19.7 PPG is the second most of any rookie in the time frame (Zeke in 2016 had 21.7 PPG)
• Over the past four Fantasy Football seasons, only two backs have multiple Top-5 Finishes: LeVeon Bell and DeMarco Murray
• Only Bell, Elliott and McCoy have multiple seasons with 20+ PPG over the past six seasons

Recent Fantasy Football History: Wide Receivers

• • Antonio Brown has been the #1 overall receiver in PPR for four straight seasons. He was third the year before that. This does not get talked about enough.
  • There have been 20 instances of a receiver playing more than half the year and averaging at least 19.3 points per game in the entire NFL in the last 6 seasons. Brown has five straight years with at least 19.3 PPG.
  • Brown and Julio Jones each have four straight WR1 seasons. Larry Fitzgerald and Doug Baldwin are the only other players with three straight.
  • 9 receivers have been at least a WR3 in each of the past four seasons: Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, Jones, A.J. Green, Golden Tate, Demaryius Thomas, Mike Evans, and T.Y. Hilton.
  • With wide receivers, I noticed a few guys that you saw natural upward trends with their year-end finishes. Seeing this could have made their breakout 2017 easier to see: Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Nelson Agholor. Robby Anderson could be a candidate for that breakout this year.
  • 25 wide-outs followed up a WR1 season with another WR1 season.
  • 15 others followed up their WR1 season with a WR2 season. So only 20 of the possible 60 WR1 seasons were followed with a non-starter year.
  • Demaryius Thomas is the only receiver to finish in the Top 24 in each of the last six seasons. He has never finished lower than 16th. He is currently being taken as the 17th receiver off the board. Which is lower than his absolute floor.

Over the last two seasons, #Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas has generated a passer rating of 119.6 on his red zone targets – the fifth-best mark among players with at least 25 targets in that span. #BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/YEuNjv3ZwI

— PFF DEN Broncos (@PFF_Broncos) June 11, 2018

• • Danny Amendola has not finished in the Top 40 at the position in the past six years.
  • Golden Tate has an average finish of just a bit over 16th over the past four seasons. He is currently being taken as the 22nd receiver off the board.
  • After finishing as the third best Fantasy Football receiver in 2016, some had Mike Evans as the top wide-out going into last season. 2016 is still his only WR1 finish in his four years in the league.
  • Marvin Jones finished as the WR12 last season. It was his first time finishing in the Top 28 at the position in six seasons.
  • Jordy Nelson’s last three full healthy seasons: 2nd, 3rd and 13th.
  • Ever the “sleeper” or “breakout” Donte Moncrief has yet to crack the Top 35 at the position in four seasons.
  • The last three seasons that Brandon Marshall played all 16 games he finished 3rd, 5th and 2nd.
  • Randall Cobb has just one Top-24 finish in the past five seasons.
  • After the rookie receiver explosion of 2014, 2015 and 2016 had just a single Top 20 rookie receiver and there were zero last season.

Golden Tate and Jarvis Landry are miles ahead of the field at receiver when it comes to forcing missed tackles. pic.twitter.com/zvbFW8ztf9

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 13, 2018

• Jarvis Landry, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin and Demaryius Thomas are the only players to play all 16 games each of the last four seasons. They have 8 WR1 finishes and another 6 WR2 finishes in those 16 combined seasons (the only other two seasons were both in 2014). It is very possible that you can draft three of these four in rounds 3-5.

Recent Fantasy Football History: Tight Ends

• • Kirk Cousins to Tight Ends: the last three years have a 136 targets, 100.3 receptions, 1118.3 yards, and 8.67 touchdowns average per year or 264.12 PPR Points; over career: 16.5 PPR points per game to tight ends.
  • Kyle Rudolph has received 87% of tight end Targets, 88% of yards, 94% of touchdowns over the last two seasons. If you take his percentages in the Vikings’ offense and apply it to Kirk Cousins’ normal tight end production, you get: 87.3-984.1-8.2 or 234.9 PPR points or 14.68 points per game.

Kyle Rudolph just keeps putting up big NFL numbers. https://t.co/PHRQ0fhzgT

— SlapTheSign (@SlapTheSign) June 12, 2018

• 234.9 PPR points would have been TE1 last season, and the 8th most TE points in the last six years. You can currently get him in Round 10.
• Delanie Walker is the only tight end with three straight TE1 seasons. He is currently the 8th tight end being drafted.
• Only Walker and Travis Kelce have been in the Top 8 at the position each of the past four seasons.
• Greg Olsen had been a Top-5 tight end in Fantasy Football for three straight years and Top-7 for five straight years until his injury-plagued 2017.
• Only 12 of the 30 TE1 seasons were followed by another TE1 year.
• 6 more players followed their TE1 year with a TE2 season. So 12 out of 30 or 40% of TE1’s were non-starters the next season.
• Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert have combined for just two TE1 seasons in ten total seasons. They are both currently being drafted as TE1’s.
• 7 Players have just a single Top-12 finish at the position over the past four seasons. 8 players have at least three Top-12 finishes in the same time frame.
• Travis Kelce is the only tight end to not miss a game because of injury over the past four seasons (that is still active).

Thanks for checking out my 55 Fantasy Football observations! Be sure to read up on our early positional rankings and the 5 players on the rise after the draft!

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Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog, Dirkland.blogspot.com, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.

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