Say it with me please.
“I am not alone. There are plenty of others like me. It is not my fault. There is nothing I could have done. Sometimes you do everything right and things still end up wrong. It’s just an unfortunate fact of life that I can’t trust anyone and everyone will let me down and leave me disappointed in the end. Even the people I trust most will hurt me. Never trust again.”
Of course this morning’s (de)affirmation comes to you courtesy of Felix Hernandez. The worst pitcher in the history of baseball.
If you read my FanDuel picks for yesterday, you know I built two lineups; one with Felix Hernandez and a bunch of platoon advantaged hitters, and one with Hector Santiago facing a pathetic Oakland lineup, and a bunch of the best hitters in baseball. Santiago pitched decently, but my DFS murderer’s row could only muster 21 points. The team (mis)led by “King” Felix totaled 0.33 points, and it took a late charge to get in the positives.
All this after a week of hitting every 50/50 I played in. The lesson here is not that you should be bitter. I’ll take care of that. The lesson is that as a DFS player you have to have a short memory. There will be days where you do everything right, yet the result is terribly wrong. I’d use both of those lineups again; well except for Felix Hernandez, he’s the worst pitcher in baseball (not bitter). Think of it in a good way. If the fickle gods of baseball can lead a team of players with the odds all on their side to a score of almost absolute zero, then that means they could also lead you to a huge tournament victory.
And the day even gave us a new DFS term for David Gonos’ DFSuburban Dictionary. A lot of us got Kinged last night.
See, the pain is almost gone already and I’m not bitter… Ok, I am bitter! I hate freakin’ Felix Hernandez…
Enough wallowing in the mire… and what the hell is mire anyway? Here are the links you need to bounce back and ease your pain.
Links for MLB Weather:
Batter vs. Pitcher: I’m not much of a believer in Batter vs. Pitcher numbers. You can read why here. Still, a lot of people use this data, so here are the two that are most useful in my opinion.
Also Check out these helpful tools:
FanDuel Strategy for the Day
Playing Daily Fantasy Baseball on Saturday’s is a challenge. Trying to make recommendations is even harder. The schedule is all spread out and FanDuel has contests for varying parts of the day. So instead of targeting a particulat contest today, I’m just going to hit on the players and matchups I like and you can take it from there.
FanDuel Picks for Friday, June 12, 2015
Top Starting Pitchers for the Day
The following rankings take into account skill of pitcher, quality of opposing offense, quality of opposing pitcher, ballpark factors, and of course price at FanDuel… and no baseball’s worst pitcher will never appear in here again.
- Zack Greinke ($10,400) @ San Diego Padres – Greinke’s peripherals actually say he’s not pitching as well as he did last year, but it’s still a nice matchup. Greinke has always been tough on right-handed hitters and the meat of Padres lineup is full of them. After what baseball’s worst pitcher did yesterday in Seattle, I’ll understand if you don’t want to use any pitcher on the road. You can then move on to the next pitcher. As for me, I’m not one to hold a grudge.
- Chris Archer ($10,500) vs. Chicago White Sox – Over his last three starts Archer has allowed one earned run in 23 innings and struck out 38 batters. Oh he hasn’t walked a batter in those three games and he allowed just 14 hits. Of course you have to pitch like this to get wins with that mighty Rays offense. We may be seeing the transformation from good to great, and Archer just might be this year’s Corey Kluber.
- Gerrit Cole ($11,000) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Wait, maybe it’s Cole who is this year’s Corey Kluber… Take your pick. Any of these three pitchers is a fine selection and there’s a very good argument that Cole should be No. 1. After all, he gets to face baseball’s worst offense in his home park and he’s (un)opposed by the mighty Sean O’Sullivan. I can’t think of a better matchup… Well, I could yesterday, but that’s in the past.
Top Options at Each Position
Here are two choices at each position; one is the best bet for production and the other is a lower priced option with a favorable outlook.
Salvador Perez ($2,700) vs. Tyler Lyons (LHP) – With nine homers, 28 RBIs and a .286 average I’m not really sure why Perez is priced below the likes of Francisco Cervelli and an injured John Jaso, but I’ll take him. Perez hits slightly better against lefties and has been pounded by right-handed hitters so far. It’s not an extreme mismatch, but at the hitter position this is what we’ve got.
Jonathan Lucroy ($2,500) vs. Joe Ross (RHP) – Ross didn’t pitch horribly in his MLB debut, and he’s a decent prospect. Lucroy is just too good a hitter to not use when his salary is this low. You can avoid slumping hitters if you want, or you can be there for the inevitable breakout. Lucroy is gonna pop for a four-hit game soon and I want to be using him, especially with the current state of the catcher position.
I also like Jacob deGrom and Shelby Miller today, but they are pitching against each other. That kind of takes away a bit of the luster.
Anthony Rizzo ($4,500) vs. Mike Leake (RHP) – What’s not to like? Rizzo is hitting for average, he’s hitting for power, and he’s got just one less stolen base than home run. Leake is not a bad pitcher, but he’s giving up the longball at a career high rate (1.39/9) and has no put-away pitch for left-handed hitters.
Chris Carter ($3,000) vs. Mike Montgomery (LHP) – This is a bit of a gut call. Carter will never be mistaken for Rod Carew, but he’s got hits in three straight games and seems to be warming up. His platoon splits aren’t extreme but they do trend up for LHP. This is probably more of a GPP play, but there’s a two-homer day in Carter’s immediate future and there’s no reason it can’t be today.
Kolten Wong ($3,200) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (RHP) – Left-handed batters are hitting .316 against Guthrie and it was just three starts ago when he gave up 11 earned runs in one inning (take that King Felix!). Wong has slowed a bit, but always seems to be in the middle of it when the Cardinals score, as attested by his 35 runs scored.
Ben Zobrist ($2,600) vs. C.J. Wilson (LHP) – There hasn’t been much to like about Ben Zobrist this season. No real power and he’s not really running either. He’s on here for two reasons. One, the selection of second basemen on the late slate is pathetic. And two, Zobrist is hitting .100 higher when he hits right-handed. It’s not quite as extreme, but his career splits are in agreement.
Manny Machado ($3,400) vs. CC Sabathia (LHP) – Left-handed hitters are batting .161 against CC. Machado is not left-handed. He swings from the right side where Sabathia gets pounded to the tune of a .336 average. Machado is swinging it well lately with two hits in each of his last three games.
Matt Carpenter ($3,700) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (RHP) – I don’t like the price, but Guthrie is the type of pitcher Carpenter should eat alive. I expect the Cardinals to score five-plus runs and Carpenter will be in the middle of it.
Carlos Correa ($3,000) vs. Mike Montgomery (LHP) – Seriously, the shortstop position is a wasteland and Correa is not too far from being a teenager. Mike Montgomery is the type of pitcher Correa has been knocking around for the last few years in the minor leagues. Dollar for Dollar, Correa may be the best shortstop in DFS right now.
J.J. Hardy ($2,200) vs. CC Sabathia (LHP) – We know that Sabathia gets pummeled by right-handed hitters. Hardy doesn’t have any such sweet splits in his favor, but he has hit .345 in 29 at-bats vs. Sabathia. I’m not a huge believer in BvP stats, but if they are corroborated by other data, I’m more inclined to buy in. As a cheap play, I’m buying in on Hardy today.
Joc Pederson ($5,500) vs. Ian Kennedy (RHP) – Some of Kennedy’s lovely 6.48 ERA can likely be put off to bad luck, but you don’t give up 2.16 HR/9 by pitching well. Kennedy has given up seven home runs to left-handed batters in just 25.1 innings. Pederson has 14 homers in 159 at-bats against right-handed pitchers. Petco may be a fly in this ointment, but Dodger Stadium hasn’t seemed to slow Pederson down. I smell a longball.
Adam Jones ($3,600) vs. CC Sabathia (LHP) – Jones’ price tag seems low. Just like in real life people seem to not notice that Jones is doing the same thing he does every year. He’s also batting .385 against southpaws this year and has hit .310 with four home runs in 58 at-bats against Sabathia. That’s a BvP line that’s backed up by plenty of other peripheral data. The matchup is good.
Alex Rios ($2,300) vs. Tyler lyons (LHP) – This is a speculative low-cost buy. Rios hasn’t really gotten it going since coming off the DL, but he’s always had better power against LHP. With most of the DFS slates being short with a mixed schedule, you’re going to need a few cheap players in order to buy the big bats. Rios is in a good matchup and could allow you to go get Bryce Harper or Giancarlo Stanton who aren’t on this list only because they’re always good options.
Nolan Reimold ($2,400) vs. CC Sabathia (LHP) – Yes, I’m picking on CC and his extreme splits, but I also like Reimold as a cheap play. Every time he looks like he’s breaking out he gets hurt. Let’s use him before the injury comes.
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