Talk about snake-bitten. Last Friday I had possibly baseball’s most reliable ace take a dump all over my Tout Wars Daily lineup, then in Tuesday’s Tout Wars Challenge I made a little mess myself.
If you read my picks for Tuesday you know that I nailed just about every recommendation. I actually build my lineup(s) in the process of writing these columns. Well Tuesday, I had Todd Frazier, Chris Davis, and a few others who ended up hitting homers, all in the lineup I built for the day. I was also using Garrett Richards as my pitcher and he pitched a great game and got the win.
There was only one problem. After I posted my article, I failed to hit save on my lineup. As luck would have it, I had a family commitment that took me past 7:00, so I got back too late to check starting lineups, and didn’t catch my gaffe until too late. So what may have been my highest scoring lineup of the entire season, never made its way into the FanDuel database. Ouch!
Today is a new day. On with the column. Here are the links you need to build your own lineup and of course my FanDuel Strategy and Picks follow.
Links for MLB Weather:
Batter vs. Pitcher: I’m not much of a believer in Batter vs. Pitcher numbers. You can read why here. Still, a lot of people use this data, so here are the two that are most useful in my opinion.
Also Check out these helpful tools:
FanDuel Strategy for the Day
My FanDuel strategy always starts with pitching and today there is a virtual plethora of solid choices. Chris Sale is always a nice choice and his strikeout pitch is working overtime lately. Jacob deGrom has been dominant even if his numbers on the road aren’t quite as good. Sonny Gray is at home, not that it matters with his home/road splits. There are also some lower priced pitchers who have been hot like Lance McCullers and Mike Bolsinger.
But there’s one pitcher that I have to use. I touted him all spring and I featured him in my piece earlier this week about Using xFIP to Identify Buy-Low Pitchers. That pitcher is Carlos Carrasco and he’s pitching at home against a Tampa Bay offense that is shaky to say the least. Now with my luck on Fridays this season, Jake Elmore and Rene Rivera will probably combine for eight RBIs and the Rays will win using Nate Karns and eight relievers. Regardless, Carrasco’s peripherals tell me he’s an ace and I believe in the process. Carlos Carrasco it is!
FanDuel Picks for Friday, June 12, 2015
Top Starting Pitchers for the Day
The following rankings take into account skill of pitcher, quality of opposing offense, quality of opposing pitcher, ballpark factors, and of course price at FanDuel.
- Chris Sale ($11,000) @ Texas Rangers – Yes, I used Felix Hernandez on the road last week and got burned. Fluke! Sale’s home/road splits are negligible and he’s got the most strikeout upside of any pitcher going today (and most any other day).
- Sonny Gray ($10,100) vs. Los Angeles Angels – Yes the Angels have Mike Trout and a red hot Albert Pujols. They are still in the bottom third of MLB in terms of runs scored. Gray has been about as automatic as any pitcher in baseball this year and has allowed more than two earned runs in just two of his 14 starts.
- Carlos Carrasco ($8,800) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Carrasco has faced a tough early schedule and has been burned by a .342 BABIP Against. The strikeouts are there (10.34 K/9) and the walks aren’t (2.19 BB/9). His 2.84 xFIP is what you need to look at.
- Jacon deGrom ($10,800) @ Atlanta Braves – My gut says he should rank No. 2 on the day, but his 4.06 road ERA is troubling. After last week’s debacle with “King” Felix, I’m a little gunshy.
Three Pitchers to Target for Stacking
When I say target, I do not mean you want them in your lineups. Instead these are pitchers you want to think about when choosing your hitters. It’s kind of like racial profiling, but a whole lot less controversial.
- Taylor Jungmann @ Colorado Rockies – His early success belies his struggles in Triple-A. Thene there’s that Coors Field thing.
- Yohan Pino vs. Boston Red Sox – Shiny ERA in relief, but 4.93 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in minors tell us more
- Mike Wright @ Toronto Blue Jays – Wright has a 4.56 xFIP and the Blue Jays just aren’t very nice to people who throw the ball near home plate.
Top Options at Each Position
Here are two choices at each position; one is the best bet for production and the other is a lower priced option with a favorable outlook.
Victor Martinez ($3,100) vs. Adam Warren (RHP) – For most hitters I would never use them the day they return from the DL. This is Victor Martinez. If you trust his knee, there’s not a lot to dislike in this matchup.
Jonathan Lucroy ($3,200) vs. Jorge De La Rosa (LHP) – Yes, Lucroy has been struggling, but he’s in Coors Field and Lucroy crushes lefties and is one of the 50 Hitters You Should Use Against LHP. Also in Lucroy’s favor is the fact he’s had two hits in four of his last five games. He’s warming up and this matchup could break him out for good.
Joey Votto ($4,000) vs. Dan Haren (LHP) – Joey Votto is Joey Votto. Dan Haren is what puts this matchup over the top. Haren has given up 13 homers this season in 81 innings. He’s got a 4.23 ERA on the road, and a career ERA of 5.59 at Great American Ballpark. That $4,000 salary is not a huge roadblock either.
Chris Davis ($3,400) vs. Marco Estrada (RHP) – Estrada really isn’t a bad pitcher. He does a lot of things well. What he doesn’t do well is keep the ball in the yard. His 1.26 HR/9 is just a continuation of the previous two seasons and his home ballpark will not help that. Davis is boom or bust, but his odds of going yard are pretty good in this matchup.
Dee Gordon ($3,100) vs. Mike Leake (RHP) – I’m not a fan of using speed-only guys on FanDuel, but I also do not like the matchup for the top second basemen today. Gordon is hitting for a great average and facing a right-hander means SBs are in the mix.
Kolten Wong ($2,900) vs.Phillippe Aumont (RHP) – I really don’t get Wong’s salary. He easily outproduces the second basemen in his neighborhood on FanDuel and this matchup should suit him well. Aumont is making his 2015 debut and had major control issues in Triple-A. I expect the Cardinals to greet him rather rudely and Wong should be in the middle of it.
Nolan Arenado ($4,300) vs. Taylor Jungmann (RHP) – Arenado very quietly has 16 home runs and surprisingly 11 of them have come on the road. I’ll still take this matchup even with the “handi-cap” of Coors Field working against Arenado.
Maikel Franco ($2,900) vs. Tyler Lyons (LHP) – You can’t spend big at every position. Franco has done nothing to disappoint and should get some good swings at Lyons, a lefty with an ERA of 5.00. Just hope the Phillies can get some baserunners on for Franco to drive in.
Troy Tulowitzki ($4,600) vs. Taylor Jungmann (RHP) – Tulo has definitely not earned his salary this season, but as you would expect, he’s hit well at home with a ..336 average (.266 on road). I’m probably only using him against LHP, who he’s hitting .434 against this season, but Tulowitzki has to be in the discussion anytime he’s playing in Coors.
Xander Bogaerts ($2,500) vs. Yohan Pino (RHP) – The power is missing, but Bogaerts is hitting .287 and scoring his fair share of runs. If I don’t use Tulo at short, I go cheap and Bogaerts may be the best of the budget plays at shortstop.
Jose Bautista ($5,100) vs. Mike Wright (RHP) – It took Bautista awhile to get it going this year, but he’s up to six HRs in June, and 11 of his 13 total homers have come against right-handers.
Ryan Braun ($4,600) vs. Jorge De La Rosa (LHP) – Braun has been slumping, but he’s in Coors (thus the salary bump) and has a career batting average of .332 vs. left-handed pitching. I’m not sure I can stomach the salary, but in tournament play that salary may mean he’s not a popular pick.
Starling Marte ($4,100) vs. Joe Ross (RHP) – Someone tell me why Marte’s salary is not up there with his teammate Andrew McCutchen. Marte is a must-play against lefties, but there is nothing he’s not doing this season. He’s on pace for a 30/30 season with 100-plus RBIs. Sign me up.
Travis Snider ($2,800) vs. Marco Estrada (RHP) – Snider has been rather quiet this year, but he’s been swinging the bat better of late and should be in the lineup against a right-hander.
Byron Buxton ($2,300) vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP) – Hendricks has good control, but he does not have top notch stuff. At this price I’ll take a shot at Buxton having his coming out party in Minnesota.
My Friday, June 19th Lineup for FanDuel
My last couple of columns I stopped showing you my lineups and a curse seems to have fallen upon me. Far be it from me to mess with the gods of Daily Fantasy Baseball. Here’s the lineup I’ll be running out in tonight’s Tout Wars Daily Tournament.
Of course I’ll be visiting RotoWire and BaseballPress.com to make sure all of my recommendations take the field tonight. If one of my picks isn’t in the lineup, I’ll try to select options from my other recommendations. And of course I also reserve the right to tweak things if I hear other news during the day.
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