When you read articles that contain Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, it’s always about 50/50 strategy or how to score big in larger GPP tournaments. What happens though when your contest is a tournament, but the largest prize demands consistency as well?
That’s what I’m dealing with in Tout Wars Daily. What better way to explain Tout Daily than to thieve Todd Zola’s excellent description from his latest column at toutwars.com.
Tout Daily is 20 weeks long, divided into five periods of four weeks. Each week is a mini-tournament with a modest payout but the big carrot is a ticket into the one-day Tout Daily Championship with a $1000 grand prize. The top-three finishers in each period will get an entry into the finals.
Thus far I’ve treated it like a 50/50 contest in the hopes of being consistent enough to accumulate points over the four-week period. Almost without fail I’ve finished in the top half, but I never scored high enough to even come close to the top three. It’s time to change strategy just a bit.
I’m still going to rely mainly on platoon splits to select my hitters, but I think I’m going to try and pair hitters up from the same teams. Not full blown stacks, but ‘mini-stacks’ that will hopefully give my offense a little more upside.
[su_label]Check out today’s Extreme Platoon Splits![/su_label]
With that in mind, you can find my recommendations a little further down the page, but first here are the links we’ll need to build the best lineups possible.
Links for MLB Weather:
Batter vs. Pitcher: I’m not much of a believer in Batter vs. Pitcher numbers. You can read why here. Still, a lot of people use this data, so here are the two that are most useful in my opinion.
Also Check out these helpful tools:
FanDuel Strategy for the Day
My Daily Fantasy Baseball picks always start with pitching and today presents a bit of a conundrum. Clayton Kershaw is at home and gets a weak Mets offense. The next best option is Chris Archer, who’s on the road facing the Yankees. Archer’s career splits actually favor him on the road and he’s pitched well in Yankee Stadium. He’s also burdened with a Rays offense that is a daily threat to get no-hit and faces Masahiro Tanaka. The trust factor just isn’t quite there for me yet.
There are some other solid pitchers going tonight like Garrett Richards and Michael Wacha, but it probably comes down to Kershaw or Archer for the big strikeout upside I’m looking for. I’ll build a lineup using each and share them with you. Then later tonight I’ll make my decision. If you have recommendations for me, feel free to share them in the comments at the bottom of this article.
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for Friday, July 3, 2015
Top Starting Pitchers for the Day
The following rankings take into account skill of pitcher, quality of opposing offense, quality of opposing pitcher, ballpark factors, and of course price at FanDuel.
- Clayton Kershaw ($12,300) vs. New York Mets – First of all, it’s Clayton Kershaw. Then there’s the fact that only three teams have scored fewer runs than the Mets. Kershaw is opposed by Noah Syndergaard, who’s been inconsistent as you might expect from a young pitcher. If you can build a respectable lineup with Kershaw, you roll with it.
- Chris Archer ($10,600) @ New York Yankees – I already mentioned Archer’s favorable road splits and we know about his upside. The problem is the Rays offense has been futile lately and they’re in a terrible rut. The odds of a Tampa Bay win are very poor.
- Garrett Richards ($8,800) @ Texas Rangers – I am a big fan of Richards, but he’s struggled to the tune of a 5.17 ERA on the road this year. I’d certainly like the salary to use on hitters, but Richards’ 7.09 K/9 is also a bit low for my taste.
I’m going to do this a bit different today. Instead of listing the pitchers that are best to stack against, I’m going to list two or three hitters from the same team that all have extreme platoon advantages against their opposing pitcher for today.
- Joe Panic & Buster Posey vs. Gio Gonzalez
- Denard Span & Bryce Harper vs. Jake Peavy
- Leonys Martin, Mitch Moreland, Shin-Soo Choo, & Rougned Odor vs. Garrett Richards
- James Loney, Kevin Kiermaier, & Grady Sizemore vs. Masahiro Tanaka
- Kyle Seager, Logan Morrison, & Robinson Cano vs. Jesse Chavez
- Dee Gordon & Christian Yelich vs. Jason Hammel
- Jimmy Rollins, Yasmani Grandal, Adrian Gonzalez, & Justin Turner vs. Noah Syndergaard
- Luis Valbuena & Jason Castro vs. Justin Masterson
- Adam LaRoche & Conor Gillaspie vs. Chris Tillman
- Brandon Moss, Michael Brantley, & Jason Kipnis vs. Charlie Morton
- Alejandro De Aza & Pablo Sandoval vs. Dan Straily
Top Options at Each Position
Here are two choices at each position; one is the best bet for production and the other is a lower priced option with a favorable outlook.
Jonathan Lucroy ($3,000) vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP) – He’s not quite on fire just yet, but Lucroy does have eight hits of his last three games and the price tag is still very nice. I like him even better against lefties, but I’m not going to spend big at catcher regardless of whether I go with Kershaw or Archer.
Salvador Perez ($2,400) vs. Tommy Milone (LHP) – Over the last five years Perez has scored 1.195 more points per 10 ABs on FanDuel against left-handed pitchers. You have to fo up to Victor Martinez and his $3,400 salary for another matchup I like as much as this.
Paul Goldschmidt ($5,200) vs. Kyle Kendrick (RHP) – Goldschmidt is always a good pick, but he’s otherworldly vs. left-handers. I know that technically Kendrick throws with his right hand, but his results make him an honorary lefty against Goldy.
Joey Votto ($3,400) vs. Mike Fiers (RHP) – It seems like Votto has been awful quiet lately, but he’s still on pace for almost 30 HRs and has an OBP just a tad below .400. With the cost of the top pitchers, I have to think budget even at first base.
Jason Kipnis ($4,500) vs. Charlie Morton (RHP) – I’m not gonna be able to squeeze Kipnis’ salary into my lineup, but if you’re going with cheaper pitching, by all means consider Kipnis. He’s shown no signs of slowing down and is finding many ways to score points.
Robinson Cano ($2,800) vs. Jesse Chavez (RHP) – Whoever thought we’d be talking about Cano as the low-priced option. There hasn’t been too many signs of life from Cano this season, but he does hit right-handers better, and hey, he’s hitting .444 in July… Sure it’s just two days, but we’re talking a cheap option here.
Todd Frazier ($4,500) vs. Mike Fiers (RHP) – The matchups are not ideal for any of the top third basemen today, but Frazier’s splits are neutral and facing a right-hander increases the odds that he could steal a base.
Kyle Seager ($2,600) vs. Jesse Chavez (RHP) – It seems like I’m picking on Chavez, but it’s just the platoon splits talking. It seems like Seager has been a huge disappointment this year, but he’s on pace for close to the same numbers he had in 2014. And while his splits this year are a bit reversed, over his career he’s hit righties much better.
Jose Reyes ($3,800) vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP) – If you insist on spending money at shortstop, Reyes is probably your guy. You never know which Anibal Sanchez will show up, but the Blue Jays might not care.
J.J. Hardy ($2,600) vs. John Danks (LHP) – I guess it’s time to give up hope of Hardy of returning to his 20-plus HRs of 2011-2013. He’s just not the same hitter. John Danks fixes a lot of things though. The Orioles have scored the fifth most runs in baseball, the game is in a renowned hitter’s park and John Danks is on the hill. If anything can rejuvinate Hardy, this is it.
Andrew McCutchen ($4,200) vs. Trevor Bauer (RHP) – My instincts told me that Bauer would be tough on right-handed hitters. My instincts were wrong. Right-handed hitters have hit almost 50 points higher vs. Bauer. There’s no problem with spending more to get Mike Trout, but otherwise McCutchen is the best deal of the elite class of outfielders.
Adam Jones ($3,200) vs. John Danks (LHP) – Dank you very much. Jones’ career splits are neutral, but he’s hitting .367 against left-handers this season. John Danks is going to give up five runs or more in all likelihood. You have to think Jones will be involved.
Steve Pearce ($2,400) vs. John Danks (LHP) – Yes, this is about Danks, but it’s also about Pearce and lefties. Over the last five years, Pearce has scored 6.561 FanDuel points for every 10 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. That puts him in Albert Pojols and Carlos Gomez territory.
Kole Calhoun ($2,300) vs. Chi-Chi Gonzalez (RHP) – Calhoun has been all over the Angels lineup. Lately he’s been hitting in the two slot. I like him there. He’ll have a chance to drive in a few runs and also has Trout and Pujols backing him up. The salary cap dwindles quickly when you spend $10,000-plus on a pitcher, so picks like Calhoun are a necessity.
My Friday, July 3rd Lineups for FanDuel
Ok, below are the two lineups I came up with using Kershaw and Archer. I actually think I like the offense I built with Kershaw better. I may end up using some combination of the two.
Either way, I’ll be visiting RotoWire and BaseballPress.com to make sure all of my recommendations take the field tonight. If one of my picks isn’t in the lineup, I’ll try to select options from my other recommendations. And of course I also reserve the right to tweak things if I hear other news during the day.
I hope my Daily Fantasy Baseball picks get you pointed in the right direction. Follow all of Doug Anderson’s columns on SoCalledFantasyExperts.com
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