Before we get to my Daily Fantasy Baseball picks, just a reminder that our Tuesday picks are geared toward 50/50 contests.
To be specific, I’m building a lineup for the Tout Wars Challenge, where for $2, you get the chance to play against me and 40 or so other Touts.
Also check out today’s Extreme Platoon Splits to see which hitters have the advantage in their daily matchups.
Finish in the Top 45 and you double your money. And just to make it a little easier for you, I share the lineup I’ll be using.
Hopefully you’re up for the challenge, besides it’s more fun when you get to say you beat a bunch of “professionals” and cashed all over their Asdrubal Cabreras.
Now onto the task at hand. Here are the links you need to prepare for the night’s action and of course follwing that are my Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for Tuesday, June 30, 2015.
Links for MLB Weather:
Batter vs. Pitcher: I’m not much of a believer in Batter vs. Pitcher numbers. You can read why here. Still, a lot of people use this data, so here are the two that are most useful in my opinion.
Also Check out these helpful tools:
FanDuel Strategy for the Day
Wow, we’re focused on 50/50 contests, but with all the quality pitchers going today, it will make for a lot of interesting tournament options. Conventional wisdom says to go with one of the top two or three options in 50/50 play, but I feel comfortable going nine pitchers deep today, and the 10th pitcher is Marco Estrada, who’s gone into the eighth inning with no-hitters in each of his last two starts.
Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole are the two highest priced pitchers, but they’re both on the road against quality offenses. For my money (and yours), the two best matchups are Sonny Gray at home against the Rockies, who have Jorge De La Rosa going, and Danny Salazar, who’s on the road, but facing the Rays and Erasmo Ramirez. Ramirez is just returning from an injury and it seems like every other pitcher goes deep into the game with a perfect game lately (see Estrada, Marco).
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Top Starting Pitchers for the Day
The following rankings take into account skill of pitcher, quality of opposing offense, quality of opposing pitcher, ballpark factors, and of course price at FanDuel.
- Sonny Gray ($10,100) vs. Colorado Rockies – Gray has been dominant and consistent this season, giving up more than three earned runs just twice in 16 starts. In 12 of those he gave up two or less. His career ERA is actually lower on the road, but I’ll take that 2.97 home number against a team that is in the bottom fifth of MLB in runs scored on the road.
- Danny Salazar ($8,900) @ Tampa Bay Rays – Salazar’s 4.06 ERA is misleading as he has an xFIP of 2.81. Like Gray, Salazar’s splits, both this season and for his career, favor him being on the road. In 50/50s it’s all about safety, and it’s hard seeing the Rays doing any real damage gainst Salazar
- Chris Sale ($11,300) @ St. Louis Cardinals or Gerrit Cole (10,600) @ Detroit Tigers – I’m not going to argue too hard against these two studs. I just think that with the matchups, you can go with lesser pitchers today, and save some money for better hitters. Go with Sale or Cole and you’ll probably be just fine as well.
Three Pitchers to Target for Stacking
When I say target, I do not mean you want them in your lineups. Instead these are pitchers you want to think about when choosing your hitters. It’s kind of like racial profiling, but a whole lot less controversial. Stacking is not always a smart play in 50/50 contests, but I’ll throw these out there.
- Danny Duffy @ Houston Astros – Duffy has been flat out bad this year and the Astros offense is constructed to destroy left-handed pitching. They have the fifth most runs scored against left-handers this season and you can have your pick of five high impact right-handed bats to choose from. I like Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and George Springer best, but you could toss Evan Gattis and Chris Carter on the pile if you want.
- Colby Lewis @ Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore is fifth overall in runs scored and third at home. Lewis has been decent at home this season, but his ERA jumps to 4.59 on the road. I’m thinking an affordable little stack might be Chris Davis paired with Chris Parmalee and Travis Snider if they’re all in the lineup. Of course you can feel free to swap out Manny Machado or Adam Jones if you want.
- Rubby De La Rosa vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – I actually like De La Rosa to gradually develop into a quality Major League pitcher, but right now he’s prone to blowups and left-handed hitter are batting .089 higher (.296) than right-handers against him. I’m thinking Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson, and Yasmani Grandal look nice, with Jimmy Rollins and Andre Ethier also solid cheaper options.
Top Options at Each Position
Here are two choices at each position; one is the best bet for production and the other is a lower priced option with a favorable outlook.
Matt Wieters ($3,300) vs. Colby Lewis (RHP) – Wieters is hitting .342 off right-handed pitching in his short time back on the field. I expect the Orioles to put plenty of runners on against Lewis, so the opportunities will be there. Not a fan of the price, but if you can squeeze him in, the matchup could pay off big.
Jonathan Lucroy ($2,800) vs. Cole Hamels (LHP) – I love Cole Hamels, but Lucroy scores 1.752 more pts. per 10 plate appearance vs. left-handers than he does against right-handers. If you want to go the BvP route, he’s hit .462 in 13 at-bats off of Hamels. Throw in a low salary and there’s not a whole lot to dislike here.
Edwin Encarnacion ($4,100) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) – Rodriguez has shown flashes but he’s given up six-plus earned runs in two of his last three starts. With the Blue Jays it’s usually just a matter of choosing which big bopper to use. Against left-handed pitchers, just use them all (not legal).
Chris Davis ($3,400) vs. Colby Lewis (RHP) – Don’t look now but Davis has his average up to .234. Davis has as much power upside as any hitter in baseball, and his salary lets you invest more at shallow positions. I see a long ball and two or three ribbies today.
Jose Altuve ($4,300) vs. Danny Duffy (LHP) – Altuve is on my list of Extreme Platoon Splits and is a career .345 hitter against left-handed pitching. You’d think a lefty on the mound would slow Altuve down on the bases, but he’s got nine of his 21 stolen bases against LHP and hasn’t been thrown out yet.
Dee Gordon ($3,000) vs. Ryan Vogelsong (RHP) – I’m not a big fan of speed-only guys in Daily Fantasy Baseball, but Dee Gordon at $3,000? Against Ryan Vogelsong? Sign me up.
Josh Donaldson ($4,100) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) – Donaldson is always a solid option. Against left-handing pitching there is no better option. Per 10 plate appearances, Donaldson scores 2.708 more FanDuel points against LHP than RHP. No-brainer here folks.
Kris Bryant ($3,500) vs. Jon Niese (LHP) – Bryant is hitting .308 with four of his 10 homers against left-handed pitching. Niese has been getting hit hard by left and right-handed batters alike. Bryant strikes out plenty, but he’s contributing in a multitude of ways and I like his matchup today.
Carlos Correa ($4,100) vs. Danny Duffy (LHP) – Correa is now the most expensive shortstop on FanDuel… He’s probably worth it.
Marcus Semien ($2,200) vs. Jorge De La Rosa (LHP) – It’s mostly a salary play, but Semien does a little bit of everything, and he does a little bit of everything a little better against left-handed pitching. I just can’t bring myself to pay for the more expensive shortstops.
George Springer ($3,700) vs. Danny Duffy (LHP) – Springer’s splits are pretty neutral, but I still like his power against Duffy. I also think the Astros will be filling the bases. Springer is a .500 hitter against Duffy in his career… Yeah, it’s only two at-bats, but hey, the one hit was a home run.
Joc Pederson ($3,500) vs. Rubby De La Rosa (RHP) – Things have slowed down for Pederson as the year has progressed, but he’s still got a .393 OBP against RHP, and FanDuel is basically an OBP league. We already covered De La Rosa’s issues with left-handed hitters. With the price coming down, this matchup is pretty attractive.
Michael Brantley ($3,100) vs. Erasmo Ramirez (RHP) – The power is not clicking yet, but everything else looks just like his 2014 season for Brantley. He can produce points in a variety of ways and I expect Ramirez to struggle a bit after missing a couple of turns in the rotation.
Matt Kemp ($3,000) vs. Mike Montgomery (LHP) – His 2015 splits don’t show it, but Kemp is a .327 career hitter against LHP. He’s also turned on the power, with five homers in 25 games in June. I’d like the salary a little lower, but I’m not a fan of the matchups for the upper tier of outfielders, so Kemp represents a nice value.
My Tout Wars Challenge Lineup
My Daily Fantasy Baseball picks are always geared toward 50/50 contests, which is nice since you have the opportunity to compete against me in the Tout Wars Challenge. For just $2 you get to get thumped by me.
The good news is, even when I beat you, you can still finish in the top half and make some cash. Anyway here’s the lineup I’m planning on using.
Of course I’ll be visiting RotoWire and BaseballPress.com to make sure all of my recommendations take the field tonight. If one of my picks isn’t in the lineup, I’ll try to select options from my other recommendations.
And of course I also reserve the right to tweak things if I hear other news during the day.
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