As with all of our lineup recommendations, these Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks are based on the information we have at the time of posting. Make sure you keep an eye on the weather and all of the latest lineup changes.
FanDuel Strategy for the Day
Avoid walking under ladders and crossing paths with black cats. Today is Friday the 13th. What does that mean for Daily Fantasy Baseball? Not sure, but maybe you want to give Brad Miller, Adonis, Garcia, and Tyler White some extra attention. They all wear No. 13!
For an almost full schedule (Pirates-Cubs afternoon game), there’s only one true ace going today in Chris Sale. In 50/50s he’s a nice option, but I’m building a lineup for the FantasyPros Daily Fantasy Accuracy Challenge, a small tournament with 44 of the industry’s top minds (plus me) battling it out over the course of the season to grab some bragging rights.
A hybrid tournament like this means you don’t have to go too rogue like you might when you’re playing in a field of thousands, but if you play it too safe it will be hard to stand above the crowd.
I’ll look to use a mid-level starting pitcher with a nice matchup, use platoon advantages, well, to my advantage, and take a shot at one or two struggling power hitters at favorable prices.
In order to do that we need to be prepared. Here are the links you need to study for the night’s action and of course following that are my Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for Friday, May 13, 2016.
Links for MLB Weather:
Probable Pitchers and Lineups:
Batter vs. Pitcher: I’m not much of a believer in Batter vs. Pitcher numbers. You can read why here. Still, a lot of people use this data and I have to admit occasionally taking a pick when I make my DraftKings picks, so here are the two that are most useful in my opinion.
MLB DFS Picks for Friday, May 13, 2016
Best Starting Pitchers for the Day
Chris Sale is the one bonafide ace going today. He’s pitching in New York and is $3,000 more expensive than the best of the rest. There’s an argument for taking him, but I think there’s enough upside left elsewhere, that I’ll try and save a little cash.
Two of the pitchers I really like today happen to be facing each other. Rich Hill has been t inconsistent, but he comes with huge strikeout upside, and contrary to what you’d think, he’s pitched much better on the road thus far. Add in a Tampa Bay offense that has scored the third fewest runs, and struck out more than all but five teams, and the matchup gets even better.
The only downside to Hill is his mound opponent, Jake Odorizzi. Because of that weak Rays lineup Odorizzi is winless this year, but he’s also got a 3.10 ERA that is mostly the result of a 1.09 mark at home. His career splits reflect the same excellence in the Trop.
Some wouldn’t use a starting pitcher against a quality mound opponent like this, but in a game that could be low scoring, I’m not sure you chase the win. I side with Hill because of the high strikeout potential and a horrible Tampa Bay offense.
Top MLB DFS Picks at Each Position
Here are two choices at each position; one is the best bet for production and the other is a lower priced option with a favorable outlook.
I’m not a fan of spending big on catching. Once you get past Buster Posey, it’s just a big pile of mediocrity. So the plan is to use that mediocrity.
Victor Martinez ($3,300) vs. Chris Tillman (RHP) – Bust Posey and Martinez are at the same price point and either would be a nice play. I’ll go with Martinez tonight because of his .380 average against right-handed pitchers. His career splits are pretty neutral, but I suspect his knee issues may make him more of a platoon play.
Russell Martin ($2,200) vs. Martin Perz (LHP) – Martin is off to a horrible start no matter who’s pitching. He had the night off Thursday and should be fresh for Friday’s action. He’s been battling a neck problem, but as long as he’s in the lineup, the price tag still makes him a decent option.
Edwin Encarnacion ($3,800) vs. Martin Perz (LHP) – Anytime the Jays face a left-handed starter you have to consider all of their studs. Encanacion is off to a boringly decent start, but his power has not disappeared. The only question tonight is which Toronto hitters you can afford and which do you choose.
Ryan Zimmerman ($3,000) vs. Tom Koehler (RHP) – I don’t typically pay attention to hot and cold streak, but Zimmerman is one of those players who can look like he doesn’t belong in the big leagues for long stretches. Then he suddenly turns into an MVP type hitter. He’s not exactly on fire right now, but he did have a two-homer game Wednesday and Koehler is not going to dominate anybody.
Jason Kipnis ($3,400) vs. Ricky Nolasco (RHP) – Kipnis is another player who can be an elite option at times. He adds a little pop and a little speed, and the matchup against Nolasco is a good one. If you’re not up for spending the cash for Altuve or Cano, Kipnis may be the best thing going tonight at second base.
Brandon Phillips ($2,900) vs. Jeremy Hellickson (RHP) – It amazes me how Phillips gets no respect in Fantasy circles. He’s back at it again this year, bumping up the power a bit and likely to get 15-plus stolen bases. He’s another chance to save a few bucks and still have some upside to play with.
Josh Donaldson ($4,300) vs. Martin Perez (LHP) – Yep, another Blue Jay. If you can swing the salary, Donaldson might be the target today. He’s always torched lefties, but his splits this year are even more pronounced. The good news is that right now his price tag is about as low as it will ever get. Squeeze him in if you can.
Maikel Franco ($2,700) vs. Brandon Finnegan (LHP) – Do you ever just look at a salary on FanDuel and wonder why? Franco is off to a bit of a slow start, but he’s still on pace for 30-plus HRs and 90-plus RBIs. If you don’t go with Donaldson, then Franco is probably the best value play.
Troy Tulowitzki ($2,800) vs. Martin Perez (LHP) – I have not been a fan of Tulowitzki with the move out of Coors, but this price tag is too low to ignore on any day the Blue Jays face a left-handed pitcher. Just take a look at his career numbers vs. LHP. He may be off to a horrid start, but I can’t ignore those splits.
Brandon Crawford ($3,400) vs. Shelby Miller (RHP) – Chase Field may not be Coors, but it’s been very offensive this season. Crawford is not exciting, but he does have power and if Shelby Miller has mechanical issues, the Giants could put plenty of runners on for him. I’d love to go cheap at short, but the pickings are thin tonight.
Bryce Harper ($4,100) vs. Tom Koehler (RHP) – The salary is very reasonable. It may just be my perception, but Fanduel seems to be pricing elite players a little lower this year. Harper is elite and even if the Marlins walk him four times you still get points for the runs and walks.
Ryan Braun ($4,200) vs. Christian Friedrich (LHP) – Back issues have limited Braun to a .376 average thus far. Hate to see what he’d do with a healthy back. Braun is another player you have to consider anytime a southpaw takes the hill. He’s hitting .385 against lefties this year and .337 for his career.
Justin Upton ($2,900) vs. Chris Tillman (RHP) – Each time we think Upton is righting the ship he goes through another dry stretch. Tillman has been much improved this year, but the long ball has been his bugaboo throughout his career. At this price point a gamble on Upton could pay off huge.
Steve Pearce ($2,800) vs. Rich Hill (LHP) – Pearce is performing a whole lot like he did in his career year of 2014, and as usual it’s mostly based on his numbers against left-handed pitcher. He’s hitting .400 this season against lefties and his career splits are pretty extreme as well. Just treat him like a 30-HR hitter when a southpaw takes the hill.
My FanDuel Lineup for Friday, May 13, 2016
Hopefully you’ve found something in my Daily Fantasy Baseball picks to help you out. It’s been an uneven season thus far, but trends are starting to form and hopefully you’ll get in your DFS rhythm.
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