QB is a very deep position in Fantasy Football and everyone knows this. The waiting game strategy has become very prevalent with this position. The best thing about the waiting game strategy is you eliminate the risk of busting on a QB with an early draft pick.
Last year’s top two QBs drafted, Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, were a disaster. If you drafted one of them last season, odds are your team did not win a Fantasy championship. In the Fantasy playoffs (Week 15 an 16), Luck was injured, and Rodgers had two terrible performances.
There are only two QBs I will not take this season. One is Tony Romo. He doesn’t involve much risk though as the No. 11 consensus QB (ADP 99). I just happen to like guys being drafted behind him like Philip Rivers and Kirk Cousins a lot more. Also, Romo has a higher injury risk than any other QB.
If you do draft Romo though, even if he breaks his collarbone in Week 1, it won’t destroy your team. He’ll be drafted in rounds 9-11, and if you take him, you will surely draft a quality backup QB. You’ll also likely be able to find guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jay Cutler on the waiver wire in most normal leagues.
The second QB I will not draft is Aaron Rodgers. Unlike Romo, Rodgers comes with a hefty price tag as a third round pick. With that same third round pick, you could draft a RB like LeSean McCoy, or a WR like Brandin Cooks. If Rodgers has another season like he did last year, he could drag your whole team down.
Yet most experts view Rodgers as a safe pick. Many are even ranking him as the No. 1 QB ahead of Cam Newton. That is just insanity. Newton outscored Rodgers through the air alone last season (in over 100 fewer pass attempts), not even taking into account Newton’s 600-plus rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs. Rodgers does get back a hobbled WR in Jordy Nelson, but Newton also gets Kelvin Benjamin back.
I do not see Rodgers as a safe pick. He is my Must Not Draft Quarterback this season.
Don’t Draft This Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (ADP 28)
I’m not knocking Rodgers. He’s the best pure passer in the NFL. He’s probably the second best passer I’ve seen in my lifetime next to Dan Marino. It’s his supporting cast I’m concerned about.
The fate of Rodgers’ season, the Packers offense, and the entire team are entirely in the hands of Jordy Nelson’s two injured knees. Without Nelson last year, this offense struggled in every way. They need his speed to stretch the field, and they have no other deep threats. It opens up things for Randall Cobb underneath, and the running game.
Rodgers still finished as the seventh ranked Fantasy QB with 3,800 yards and 31 TDs. His completion percentage did fall from 65% to 60%. He only had three 300 yard games, and one of them was only because of a game-winning Hailmary. Not really a bad season, but do you want to use a third round pick on the seventh ranked QB? This season can very easily be a repeat of last year. The Packers stuck to their tradition of not signing any impact free agents (TE Jared Cook doesn’t do much for me).
If Nelson misses time, they’ll be in the exact same predicament as last season. Even if Nelson does play all 16 games, he’s not going to touch his 2014 numbers. He had a career year that year. He set an NFL record with an incredible seven TDs of over 40 yards. That’s not going to happen again. Adrian Peterson’s amazing ACL recovery has also skewed the view many have on the ACL recovery time table. You can usually play one year after an ACL tear, but it normally takes two years for the knee to return to full strength.
Nelson is also 31 and has only had three 1,000 yard seasons over and eight year career. He doesn’t have a long track record of production for a player of his age, like a Brandon Marshall (who’s only a year older). Nelson relies mainly on his speed. He’s not a super physical, go up and grab a jump ball type of receiver.
In addition to the Jordy Nelson issue, the Packers have some serious offensive line concerns. Three of their starting offensive lineman are currently dealing with injuries. Last year, this line allowed Rodgers to be sacked 41 times, third worst in the league. Of course they still opted not to sign any free agent lineman. Rodgers may not have time to get the ball downfield to Nelson as much as he’d like.
While Rodgers may very well be the best QB in the NFL, he’s not the best Fantasy option at the position this season.
- 2016 Fantasy Football: Week 13 Game Previews and Fantasy Predictions - December 3, 2016
- 2016 Fantasy Football: Week 12 Game Previews and Fantasy Predictions - November 25, 2016
- 2016 Fantasy Football: Week 11 Game Previews and Fantasy Predictions - November 19, 2016