I kept the momentum going last week with my Start or Sit predictions, finishing 10-4-1 on the week. Hopefully this upward trend continues into my Week 9 Start or Sit players.
My best play (or I guess no play) was the Sit of Russell Wilson. Wilson was the third highest projected quarterback, and seventh ranked. He finished 25th out of the 26 quarterbacks who started with just 9.22 points.
Theo Riddick was the 31st ranked back on our site and finished with the second most points. I gave you the advice to start him but over thought it on my own team with James White (d’oh!).
The shoot-out in Big D did not go as high as I had hoped, but Carson Wentz and Ryan Mathews still put up solid games. I think the Cowboys game goes the other way this week, with a more low-scoring affair.
As always, if a guy outperforms his ranking as a Start, then it’s a win. If he does so as a Sit, then it’s a loss. Vice versa for the under-performing. If someone outperforms/under-performs their ranking by 12 or more spots, it will be a Major Win. By these metrics, my Start or Sit predictions are 55-34-3 for the year, with 34 Major Wins.
Once again, for our Week 9 Start or Sit purposes I am going to focus on guys that are ranked outside of the Top 24 RB/WRs and Top 10 QB/TEs for my “starts,” and inside the Top 20 RB/WRs and Top 8 QB/TEs for my “sits.”
Week 9 Start or Sit
(All rankings are based off of the SCFE Staff Consensus PPR Rankings)
Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans vs. San Diego Chargers (QB11)
Mariota has multiple touchdown passes in four straight games. He also has 270 passing yards or more in two of his last three. San Diego has given up the fifth most passing yards in the league this season. He is well-worthy of the lead-off in my Week 9 Start or Sit predictions.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (QB15)
Week 9 is not the time to get too cute on streaming or match-ups. With four of the Top-18 quarterbacks on a bye, you need to take what is a given. I think Matthew Stafford is a given, no matter what defense he is facing.
Stafford has at least 14 points in a every game except one. It’s also not like the Vikings looked great in giving up 250-plus yards to Jay Cutler in his first game back.
Duke Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys (RB25)
The Eagles showed a slight flaw in Dallas’ defense and that was getting the ball outside on screens to running backs. Johnson will be the beneficiary of that this week. He is a PPR must-start to me.
Tim Hightower, RB, New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers (RB26)
San Francisco has given up the most Fantasy points, rushing yards, and second most touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Hightower took the lead back role last week and broke the 100-yard mark.
In fact, in the last two weeks, Hightower has averaged almost five yards per carry. He has just looked better than Mark Ingram as well. This may be a committee, but Hightower will be the leader of it.
Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (WR25)
I already told you that I like Stafford this week and it feels like a Tate week to me. Tate has had a roller coaster of a season with ups and downs, but when he is up, he is a stud. I feel an ‘up’ coming this week.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers (WR26)
Do you realize that Thomas is on pace for 96 catches, 1,142 yards and 7 touchdowns? Do you also realize that would have beaten out teammate Brandin Cooks for the 12th most PPR points by a receiver last season?
Thomas has at least 4 catches and 9.6 PPR points in every game. He is a must-start going forward and my biggest lock for the Week 9 Start or Sit.
Michael Thomas has played at least 70 percent of the snaps in every game since Week 3. He is the WR14 in that time, which includes his bye. pic.twitter.com/UeLmkOAOq2
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 31, 2016
Michael Crabtree, WR, Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos (WR28)
I know, it’s the celebrated Denver defense. I think Crabtree has become matchup proof though. Amari Cooper will always draw the best corner and the most attention. Crabtree has turned that into at least 87 yards or a touchdown in every game but one. Since that one bad game, he has averaged 21.2 points per game. Don’t get too cute here.
Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs (TE11)
With Marcus Peters likely on Allen Robinson, Thomas will be the Red Zone target yet again. He has scored in two straight, and half of the games he has played this season. His yardage has been down, but he has at least four targets in every game. I think he gets a score here.
Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans (TE14)
The Titans have given up the fourth most yards and catches to tight ends this season. The past few weeks, Hunter Henry has fallen off and Gates has taken his spot back. He has more yards, targets, catches and touchdowns than the rookie. He also has a touchdown in half the games he has played.
Green Bay Packers DST vs. Indianapolis Colts (DST9)
The Packers are a solid streaming play this week. They can get after the quarterback and the Colts will let them by.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns (QB10)
He is slightly out of my range for a Sit, but I think the point needs to be made here that Prescott was awful last week. He threw one of the worst interceptions I have ever seen in the Red Zone and got bailed out on another by Terrance Williams.
His touchdown to Dez Bryant was a poor throw that Dez adjusted to. He was just not good. Now everyone is assuming a blowout against the hapless Browns this week, but with half of the Dallas secondary gone, this is going to be a tough game. I’m not starting Dak.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills vs. Seattle Seahawks (RB19)
Now I know that the Seahawks have not been as strong defensively as we are used to, but I will still avoid them in Seattle. McCoy is still hampered with that hamstring injury, so even if he plays he will not be 100%.
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers (RB16)
The dreaded RBBC term has been used this week in New Orleans. Ingram was benched for the rest of the game after his fumble against Seattle, and Tim Hightower looked more than proficient in his place.
— NFL (@NFL) October 28, 2016
Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs (WR15)
I confess I was holding out hope for Robinson longer than anyone. Somehow I snagged him as my fourth receiver in one league and thought he would be worth valuable trade bait.
I was wrong. Yeah, he had a decent game last week but it took 15 targets to get 13 PPR points. That kind of volume will not continue. He has yet to crack the 75-yard mark in a game and is benchable to me.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (WR19)
Diggs started the season so hot that people seemed to look past how awful he has been since. Yeah, he had a nice bounceback game against Chicago last week. But that one decent game was more points than his previous three games combined.
The Lions are in the top half of the league against opposing receivers and Diggs will be their main focus.
Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns (TE8)
Let’s not get caught up in the craziness here. That was Witten’s first touchdown of the season Sunday night, and it was a wild and broken play to get it to him. He was not one of the first options.
In fact, he only has more than 51 yards once this season, the season opener when Dak was still figuring out the offense. He has not broken the 10-point mark in over a month and only done it twice this season.
That’s it for your Week 9 Start or Sit plays! If you have any lineup questions, shoot them to us on Twitter @Tomlin3 or @SoCalledFanEx.
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