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TIL: Site Projections are Battles for 5 Percent

In reading Ron Shandler’s 2015 Baseball Forecaster, I learned that when projecting stats for baseball, we’re all just really battling for five percent.

“Research has shown that the best accuracy rate that can be attained by any system is about 70%. In fact, a simple system that uses three- year averages adjusted for age (“Marcel”) can attain a success rate of 65%. This means all the advanced systems are fighting for occupation of the remaining 5%.” — Shandler,

How depressing and exhilarating all at the same time!?! Knowing you can’t be perfect makes it much easier to trust others’ projections, which allows me to focus more on my strategy.

TIL is a Reddit term which means, “Today, I learned …” And I’m going to try to post something that I learned here every day!


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