Welcome to the Week 10 Survivor Picks. Hopefully you are still hanging around.
Naturally in life, we want that thriller ending and suspense captures our true emotions. In NFL Survivor Leagues, however, I like the nice smooth finish. I love the 40-0 halftime score that allows me to just sit comfortably on the couch and not live and die with every throw. So, for that, I thank the Cincinnati Bengals for providing me with smooth sailing to Week 10. Although I realize it was only 17-10 going into the fourth quarter, last Thursday night’s game had one of those “feelings” about it. I, and I would assume Cincinnati fans as well, never really had much doubt that the Bengals would pull that one out.
As we enter this week, let’s recap. Tampa Bay games are now off limits thanks to New Orleans and Atlanta. We have also already used Dallas, Seattle, Green Bay, Minnesota, Arizona and Cincinnati. I’ve also hinted towards New England in Week 11, although we will obviously discuss them later on.
This week offers a lot of big spreads, yet also a lot of intriguing matchups. Although every week will, without a doubt, provide some opportunity for blowouts. Minnesota at Oakland could be very interesting, if Teddy Bridgewater plays as expected. I also expect Carolina at Tennessee to be a lot closer than anticipated, given what we saw the first two weeks out of Miami with their new coach.
Then again, as I mentioned, we also have six games with a spread over six points, yet only three fall under my list of “safe” picks. Let’s get to the Week 10 Survivor Picks.
Week 10 Survivor Picks
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
There are three things you should know about Peyton Manning: he rarely loses at home (25-2 since joining Denver), he rarely loses to Kansas City (12-1 in his career) and he rarely loses in back-to-back weeks.
While Kansas City’s defense has certainly stepped up since allowing 30-plus points in three straight weeks (Week 2-4), their offense has still been sub-par, aside from demolishing a Detroit team that seemed to stay state-side instead of showing up in London.
In addition, although we haven’t truly seen the impact of Jamaal Charles’ loss, I think that changes this week. Denver is a very stout defense, yes stating the obvious, and their greatest strength is defending the pass. They rank first in yards allowed per pass attempt, first in sacks and third in passing touchdowns allowed. Oh, they also only allow 3.5 yards per rush attempt.
On the flip side, there are two things to know about Alex Smith: he rarely beats Denver (1-5 in his career) and he has only one road win since Week 9 of last season.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Besides the obvious that there is zero chance Aaron Rodgers loses three straight weeks and the Detroit Lions are an awful football team, I think we may need more analysis on this game.
While both of those reasons are why I would go with Green Bay as my top pick this week in terms of confidence points, I will dive a little deeper.
Aaron Rodgers is 49-10 at home in his career and 10-2 against the Detroit Lions. Matthew Stafford is 2-7 against Green Bay in his career and has never won at Lambeau Field.
Although I am a huge Stafford supporter, he does make it difficult when you actually look at what he’s done throughout his career with the Lions. While I realize he didn’t exactly take over a great team, this is the seventh season that he and Calvin Johnson have been together. In those seven years, they have made the playoffs twice, losing in their first game both times and Stafford is only 36-49, 14-28 on the road.
New England Patriots at New York Giants
New England will probably man-handle the Giants, just as they have every other team this year, but this game just has one of those weird feelings.
Aside from the motivation to try and complete the undefeated season once again and knock out the team that ended their undefeated season in 2007, there’s no real incentive for the Patriots in this non-conference game.
Although I would never accuse Bill Belichick and Tom Brady of looking past an opponent, they have much bigger things to worry about in Week 12 and Week 13 against the division rival Buffalo Bills and then at Denver in a potential battle for home field advantage game.
In addition, there’s something to be said about New York Giants’ Head Coach Tom Coughlin’s 5-1 record against Belichick.
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans
It’s the perfect definition of a trap game for Carolina this week and Tennessee is coming off a huge win in New Orleans last week.
Finally getting past what initially looked like the “gauntlet” on their schedule, Carolina is 8-0 with wins at Seattle in Week 6, and three straight home wins over Philadelphia, Indianapolis and Green Bay. In all of those victories, we saw their offense, which some describe as a mediocre, score 27 points or more. In fact, their offense has scored over 20 points in every game this season and has not scored fewer than 27 points since Week 2.
On the flip side, Tennessee has been very inconsistent, but if Marcus Mariota to Dorial Green-Beckham (FANTASY HINT) can become common place in Nashville, this offense could actually be a force to reckon with any given week. For your information, DGB had 10 targets last week.
In addition, Carolina’s defense has looked very tired at the end of games the past two weeks and that’s with Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers as quarterback. While both are certainly agile, neither have the legs to scramble around the pocket like Mariota.
For my Week 10 Survivor Pick, I’m taking Denver. If I had Green Bay available to me, they would be the obvious choice, but I think Denver is second on the list. Despite wins over Pittsburgh and Detroit in their last two games, the Chiefs just aren’t that good. Peyton Manning rarely loses at home and I don’t see Alex Smith and the Chiefs changing the trend.
Cincinnati over Houston would be a fine pick as well, however DeAndre Hopkins’ ability to take over a game does worry me a little. I think one of the other two teams above are much safer choices.
Good luck to all my readers with their Week 10 survivor picks. Same time next week for my Week 11 survivor picks, I hope to see you then.
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