I had a nice bounce-back with an above-.500 week, finishing 8-7 with a few major wins. For Week 12 Start or Sit purposes, we have three Thursday games that factor in heavily.
Thanksgiving weekend, to me, is the best weekend of football. Between having three NFL games on the holiday and usually a good college game, plus all of the college rivalry match ups, you get a full Sunday of NFL.
Also, it’s the best weekend for a Vegas trip: flights are cheap, and casinos are not crowded. Throw in the fact you have almost every single sport to gamble on in play, and it’s a great time.
As always, if a guy outperforms his ranking as a Start, then it’s a win. If he does so as a Sit, then it’s a loss. Vice versa for the under-performing. If someone outperforms/under-performs their ranking by 12 or more spots, it will be a Major Win. By these metrics, my Start or Sit predictions are 74-60-4 for the year heading into the Week 12 Start or Sit plays, with 45 Major Wins.
Once again, for our Week 12 Start or Sit purposes I am going to focus on guys that are ranked outside of the Top 24 RB/WRs and Top 10 QB/TEs for my “starts,” and inside the Top 20 RB/WRs and Top 8 QB/TEs for my “sits.”
Week 12 Start or Sit
(All rankings are based off of the SCFE Staff Consensus PPR Rankings as of 11/24)
Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans (QB16)
Derek Carr put up nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns on Houston last week. Now, Rivers gets the Texans as he comes off of a bye week. Yes, he had four interceptions his last game and three a couple of weeks before that. He still has put up at least 267 yards in each game since Week 3 except once, and has seven touchdowns over his last three games.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (QB15)
Detroit can take a stranglehold on the division with a win here on Thanksgiving and I think Stafford shows up for it. Stafford usually comes up big in bigger games, it’s his team (defense) that lets him down. I think he shows out on Turkey Day.
Wendell Smallwood, RB, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers (RB25)
With Ryan Mathews probably out, Smallwood should get the early down work. Sproles is also coming off a broken rib, so Smallwood’s role could be quite large. Green Bay had a vaunted rush-defense until they played Zeke, and people realized they just had not played any good running teams yet.
Chris Thompson, RB, Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (RB36)
“Fat” Robert Kelley has been the hot name in the Redskins backfield, but I think Thompson has the better Fantasy week against Dallas. The Cowboys give up over 5 catches and 50 yards a game to opposing running backs, and since being integrated in the offense, Thompson is averaging over 4 catches a game. This will be a high-scoring shoot-out where Washington will be throwing a ton, meaning Thompson should get plenty of work.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (RB39)
I really think that Detroit is going to jump out to a big lead, and the Vikings will be playing catch-up. That puts the game on McKinnon’s shoulders in the backfield as the receiving threat.
Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (WR25)
Are we really at the point where Brandon Marshall is not ranked as a starter? With Fitzpatrick back under center, he will feed the beast. Marshall will crack 120 yards and get a score.
Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (WR35)
With stud rookie Jalen Ramsey likely covering Marvin Jones more, this feels like a Golden Tate week. The last three times that the Lions played a corner of Ramsey’s caliber, Tate has averaged over 8 catches for over 113 yards and two touchdowns total. Stafford knows where to go when the match-up dictates.
Cole Beasley stats through 10 games:
— DemBoyzNation (@DemBoyzNation) November 23, 2016
Cole Beasley, WR, Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins (WR39)
Once again, I do not think Beasley is that good of a player… but he is in the best slot situation in the league. When you get to run routes between Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, with the running threat the Cowboys have, it’s just not hard to get open. It’s ludicrous that he is ranked this low. He has at least three catches in every game this season. I can imagine there are only a handful of guys that can say that. If the season ended today, he is your WR24. He is also my best bet for the Week 12 Start or Sit predictions.
Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins (TE11)
With Josh Norman shadowing Dez, this will be a slot game for Beasley and Witten. The Redskins have given up the second most catches to opposing tight ends in the league. It’s a good match-up, and Witten comes up big against the Skins.
Detroit Lions DST vs. Minnesota Vikings (DST11)
Like I said, I like the Lions in this game, and I’ll take any defense against the struggling Vikings on the road.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (QB4)
Green Bay just isn’t that good this year. The Eagles have the best defense by DVOA in the league. Rodgers has only had good numbers in garbage time, but I think the Eagles keep him in check. If you take the name away and just look at the numbers, he would not be in the Top 10 this week.
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (RB8)
Everything applies that I said last week. Gurley still does not have a 100-yard game and we are in the Week 12 Start or Sit. He is basically touchdown dependent, and while he had one last week, it was still only the third game this year with a score. The Saints are terrible against the run, but they know that Jared Goff is not going to beat them.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (RB15)
Bills’ RB LeSean McCoy had a surgical procedure on his thumb today and will be ready to play this Sunday, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 21, 2016
McCoy had surgery on his hand this week but is expected to play still. I think he will be limited, and as bad as the Jaguars are, they are pretty average against running backs in Fantasy. Buffalo has a decent shot at the playoffs and they will need McCoy in more high leverage games, so expect him to be limited here.
Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots at New York Jets (WR13)
All right so Edelman has back-to-back good games. I still think the entire Patriots’ offense is a crapshoot with who is getting the work. There’s too much unpredictability for this high of a ranking.
Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (WR19)
Crowder has had some really nice games the past few weeks, but I think DeSean Jackson comes back Thursday. As a Cowboys’ fan, I know that Jackson is an absolute Cowboys-killer. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Washington, and I think Crowder’s plate will not fill up enough for this high of a ranking.
Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (TE5)
With Jay Cutler out, the Bears will be on their (estimated) 27th quarterback this season. I think Tennessee absolutely blows them out, and it will be all on the ground. Toss in the fact that Chicago has given up the 5th fewest yards to opposing tight ends, and Walker is not a solid play this week.
That’s it for the Week 12 Start or Sit plays. Have a happy Thanksgiving and check out our rankings!
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