The Week 14 Stock Report brings about thoughts of playoffs and merriment but also of those less fortunate this time of year.
In my warped mind, I keep picturing a man wearing a stained, disheveled suit who hasn’t had a comfortable night’s sleep in months, maybe years. He is on the street corner with a cardboard sign on which is scrawled: “Invested in Rob Gronkowski. Please Help. God Bless.”
(I did say in my warped mind. Please allow me to also ask this: does “God Bless” on beggar’s sign bug you like it does me? Are there people out there who give beggars money because the beggars seem to believe in a high power? Conversely, are there people out there who see a beggar who might omit the last line on their signs and say, “Well, I was going to help the guy, but he doesn’t believe in God, so he’s getting nothing from me.” Or is it just me?)
Anyway, what scares me is I’m about one good woman and a serious bender away from being that guy. I can just see me puttering around town unshaven and mumbling “I have no Johnson. No Dave for me. Fuller and Quick. Quick and Fuller. Cousins perhaps…” before they take me away wondering what my cousins did to me and where are they now.
But I will count my blessings instead. Rather than focus on the league where Gronk was my first pick, I will take comfort in the three (of five) leagues where I secured first round byes. I might just know what I’m doing. Keep that in mind, as you review the Week 14 Stock Report, which looks specifically at players to buy and sell with the playoff weeks in mind.
Week 14 Stock Report
Players to Sell
Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
I’m sorry Robinson owners, it’s been a very tough year. The picture above is not an isolated incident. And it’s not going to get any better unless you can somehow last to Week 16 when the Jags play Tennessee who are the third most generous defense to Fantasy WRs.
Before that, however, the Jags take on the #2 and #3 most blanketing secondaries of Minnesota and Houston, respectively. And I know you might be tempted to play Robinson. After all, he is still a Top 30 WR and could be a WR3, right? He can’t be worse than the three for 31 yards he had this past week or the two for 24 yards he had the week previous, right? Wrong. And wrong. But I’ll play along—even if he hits his seasonal averages of four catches and 50 yards, is that really what you want from your WR3 in the playoffs? Don’t be surprised if Marqise Lee outproduces him, again.
But even players that have had good seasons are worth selling, for example, Jay Ajayi.
Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins
Unlike Robinson, Ajayi has at least produced some monster weeks. But his 61 yards vs the Ravens recently might be par for the course for his next three weeks. He hosts Arizona (toughest defense for RBs) this week followed by road trips to the Jets and Bills, who are seventh and fourth respectively in Fantasy points allowed to RBs. And even for you week 17ers, he faces New England whose RB-defense is smack in the middle.
I like him for keeper leagues, but he’s an avoid in DFS leagues and if you can somehow sell him in redraft leagues, do so.
A lack of production is not necessarily permanent, however. You might want to consider some of the Week 14 stock report buy options below…
Players to Buy
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Gurley has been probably the least productive first round RB that did not suffer an injury. A Sandra Bernhard/Clint Howard lovechild would have been less ugly than Gurley’s production this year. He has just four more touchdowns than I do this year and has yet to break the century mark.
Every Gurley owner has either moved on or wishes they had. Now is the time to pounce. For one, his schedule is phenomenal. He is the only starting RB who will get to face the two softest defenses in giving up Fantasy points to RBs in the next three weeks. Yes, they sandwich a date with Seattle. Yet given his price should be at rock bottom, you can probably afford to sit him during that week. Furthermore, as deflated as his price is, he remains a Top 20 PPR option, making him a legitimate RB2. The “good news,” relatively speaking of course, is that it is not heavily weighed by one or two super weeks. But don’t worry, those are coming.
And it won’t take a Christmas Miracle. Gurley’s numbers are getting better. His yards per carry over the first six games was a miserable 2.9. Yet his last six games have been a more reasonable 3.65 YPC. If you want someone that has produced and has three great match-ups, you’re going to have to pay a whole lot more. That option is …
Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
I’ve told you to sell Gordon. Over the last four weeks he has given his owners only one rushing touchdown and 224 total yards. That’s less than the aforementioned Gurley. He’s also had only 17 carries each of the last two weeks. But the stock market and Fantasy Football production is cyclical and if you haven’t sold, now is the time to hold or buy Gordon.
Gordon faces the fourth, fifth, and ninth most generous RB defenses in Cleveland, Carolina, and Oakland the next three weeks. Not only are those defenses great match-ups to begin with, but it is possible that Cleveland is playing for the first pick and Oakland is resting their players for the playoffs.
I also was not fully transparent earlier—one of those four weeks was San Diego’s bye. Gordon had only 641 rushing yards last year but now stands eight yards short of a grand. Expect him to finish with a flourish and easily double last year’s rushing total.
Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos
The great news is that Sanders and Thomas will not have to face the stingiest defense in terms of Fantasy points to receivers, that is Denver. The not so great news however is that the Denver QB situation has been, um, shall we say, not so good.
The additional not so great news is that Denver faces New England and it’s seventh toughest WR Defense in the key Week 15. However, that is bracketed by Tennessee and KC, who are the third and first most generous defenses in giving up Fantasy points to WRs. Furthermore, if you play in Week 17, the Broncos have a great matchup against the Oakland secondary who is giving up the seventh most Fantasy points to WRs.
Sanders and Thomas are both Top 20 WRs. I would expect them to maintain the position and possibly pop into the Top 10. Buy ‘em if you can.
Did the Week 14 stock report cause you to reconsider your options? Try My Playbook to figure out who is going to rise or fall next
- Week 16 Stock Report: My Stock - December 23, 2018
- Week 15 Stock Report: Playoff Buys For Weeks 15 and 16 - December 15, 2018
- Week 14 Rookie Report: Who Is THIS Guy? - December 9, 2018