DFS Busts Alert! DFS Busts Alert!
Week 1 left many of us with our jaws on the floor. There were some studs and duds that made us question our own intelligence. Willie Snead? Matt Ryan? Theo Riddick? The madness! Though to be fair, I started Snead in plenty of leagues.
Last week, I did pretty well with my DFS bust predictions. Dalton barely finished in the top 20 QBs, while Julian Edelman was very pedestrian with his 7 receptions for 66 yards (he also added 16 yards rushing). Delanie Walker stayed in single digits, behind TEs including Larry Donnell, Vance McDonald, and Jacob Tamme. I also saw the Chiefs dud from a mile away.
My one miss was with Carlos Hyde. He had a bigger night than I expected. Props to Blaine Gabbert for moving that offense (while risking his life multiple times). I need to see more from Hyde going forward, though.
This week, I’ve included more DFS bust players at each position. The valuations were more scattered in both DraftKings and FanDuel, so my similar cost alternatives try to tie to the players listed.
Week 2 DFS Busts
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (7,400 DK / 8,400 FD)
If it was just his minor ankle injury, I would have not included Wilson on my busts list. I always like to start mobile QBs with a more consistent floor due to their legs. But, Russell has not had a good track record against the Rams.
In the last 8 games vs the Rams, Wilson has averaged roughly 230 passing yards, 30 rushing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Those are not good numbers. The Rams defensive line will give the Seahawks offense fits all game long.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons at Oakland Raiders (6,800 DK / 7,900 FD)
Don’t let last week fool you. While Matt Ryan had an unusually productive day against the Buccaneers, things won’t be so easy for him this week. Yes, the Raiders defense was slaughtered by Drew Brees. But Ryan is no Brees, and he is also on the road.
Last year, his road game efforts left a lot to be desired. Averaging just under 15 ppg in standard scoring leagues on the road, I’m staying far, far away from this potential DFS bust.
Similar Cost Alternatives: Eli Manning (@ NO), Philip Rivers (@ JAX)
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks (7,500 DK / 8,400 FD)
This Rams offense is going to be extremely offensive for the near future. Jared Goff isn’t ready for primetime and Case Keenum is “seeing ghosts.” Everyone is going to focus in on stopping the run game. This has DFS bust written all over it.
Also, people ignore the fact that he did his best Devonta Freeman impression last year. After starting hot at 120 yards per game (through 7 games), he dropped down to 75 yards per game to finish the season. Woof. Double woof when you remember that the offense goes through him.
Week 2 vs the Seahawks will be no different. This is going to be a boring game full of short runs. He could save the day with a TD or big play, but I don’t see either happening. This will be a single digit performance.
Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions vs Tennessee Titans (6,100 DK / 5,900 FD)
Beneficiary of starting healthy (before entering the concussion protocol) and going against a horrible Indianapolis Colts defense, Theo had a huge 25 point performance. On 12 touches.
I know you get points for receptions. I know he is always ripe for a big play. But I’m willing to wager that the Titans defense will be better suited for Riddick’s skillset than the Colts. I see him in the 40-60 yard range with a few receptions.
If you benefited from him last week, great! But I’d look elsewhere for Week 2. He’s looking like a DFS bust.
Similar Cost Alternatives: DeAngelo Williams (vs CIN), LeGarrette Blount (@ MIA)
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (7,200 DK / 8,100 FD
Evans started off this season with a great stat line. 5 for 99 and a TD vs the Atlanta Falcons. The game was higher scoring than it should have been, though. Week 2 will have Evans face off against a secondary that going to be chomping at the bits following their Week 1 loss to the Patriots.
If the volume stays in the 6-8 target range, owners will be very disappointed at the end of the game. I fully expect the Cardinals to lock down on Mike Evans so I added him to my DFS busts list this week.
Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (7,400 DK / 7,400 FD)
With Jordy Nelson returning, Cobb had some success finding openings that didn’t exist last year. This week, he faces a tougher test with the Vikings. I’m also concerned with the overall play of the Green Bay Packers offense. I feel like they are still missing the identity that made them so feared in previous years.
Cobb’s career average against the Vikings is a putrid 3.5 receptions for 37 yards and 0.3 TDs per game. Definitely DFS bust worthy.
Similar Cost Alternatives: Alshon Jeffery (@ PHI), Kelvin Benjamin (@ SF)
Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions vs Tennessee Titans (3,500 DK / 5,500 FD)
The cost looks too good to pass up. A solid producer in Week 1, Ebron looks to carry his success forward against the Titans. This DFS bust ranking is solely based on my belief that he will not score a TD. While Matt Stafford looks like a new man, Ebron is going to continue to see a low share of a high passing volume offense.
Too many mouths to feed in Detroit. Eric Ebron will continue to have performances similar to Week 1, but will do so inconsistently. This is one of those weeks I am passing on.
Similar Cost Alternatives: Dwayne Allen (@ DEN), Jesse James (vs CIN)
Arizona Cardinals, vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3,500 DK / 4,800 FD)
While previously stating that the Cardinals will be looking for revenge after a Week 1 loss, the Buccaneers are no laughing matter on offense. They will find yardage through their dual threat running backs, Doug Martin and Charles Sims, while Jameis Winston will look to move the chains.
The Cardinals may benefit from a turnover or two, but I see them giving up big chunks of yardage and allowing points in the 20+ range. Not what you look for out of your fantasy defense.
Similar Cost Alternatives: New England Patriots (vs MIA), Houston Texans (vs KC)
- Week 5 DFS Busts: The Return of Brady? Not Yet. - October 8, 2016
- Week 4 DFS Busts: Your QB/WR Stack Attack is Whack - October 1, 2016
- THAT Fantasy Guy: What’s Wrong With Your Team - September 27, 2016