“How the hell did we let Stefon Diggs go for that price?!?!?” he asked.
I could only smile. Wish I was smiling because I owned him, but unfortunately I do not. I smiled in shared awareness of something I had realized days earlier. He was going through our league’s auction results and I was just patiently waiting for him to get there. Diggs might be one of the hottest wide receivers so far. He is currently the number two overall wide receiver and was often taken four of five rounds after the overall number one receiver. But we’ll get to them shortly.
Like that fellow owner, now is a good to time to begin assessing Draftmas. It too early to say what worked and what didn’t. But start postulating impressions and theories to test throughout the year. Look for the “big picture” trends Did guys with injury questions go earlier than you expected, and how are they doing? How are early round rookies doing compared to late round rookies? Were certain NFL teams overdrafted? Did a certain owner prepare for injury?
Because after a pretty mild week 1 for injuries (Sorry Keenan Allen owners), there was a monsoon of high profile injuries in week 2. And they hit all and up down the spectrum. It hit those in two-QB leagues (Jay Cutler), it hit mid-round breakout players (Donte Moncrief) and of course and unfortunately usual first round picks (Adrian Peterson).
Yet, here’s the thing with injuries. Sometimes they are a blessing in a disguise because the players are not performing. Adrian Peterson was averaging 1.6 yards per carry. His owners might be better off without him in their starting lineups. And no one is hoping any of these players get injured, but let’s start with this week’s “Dropping” whom might have had some owners wishing they could get a “do-over” on that player.
Dropping: Players Whose Stock is Falling
Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
The picture above is all to familiar for Robinson’s owners.
Robinson’s owners were not real happy when he only had six catches for 72 yards in week 1. They were even more unhappy when he followed that up with just three catches for 54 yards in week 2. To add insult to injury, Robinson was out-targeted and outproduced by Marqise Lee this past Sunday. Robinson is seeing his value plummet. He was recently traded on Yahoo! for the likes of Marvin Jones Jr and Amari Cooper separately, two players with far less impressive seasons under their belts than Robinson.
The touchdowns will come. Maybe not 14 of them, but you were warned all preseason that his touchdown totals would drop. Last year Robinson only had seven catches after two weeks. The year before, he had five. Robinson will get his. Be patient.
Things could be worse, you could be a Gurley owner….
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
How’s that first round pick working out for you? Perhaps Zero-WR Theory is not the way to go….Not so fast. Gurley did not score his first two games last year either. Ok, so he did rush for 159 yards in one and doesn’t even have that combined. But you are never going to see Gurley’s price lower. Gurley was traded straight up for Langford who is barely averaging 3 yards per carry for crying out loud!
We knew the Seahawks game was not going to go well. But there’s a stat from the San Francisco that tells you all you need to know. Gurley ranked 25th in rushing yards overall, but he ranked eighth among all running backs in yards after contact in Week 1. Gurley rushed for 47 yards from scrimmage, but picked up 52 after contact, breaking seven tackles on his way there, the second-highest total in the NFL. The issue is not Gurley, it is his offensive line. The Rams have one of the less experienced offensive lines having taken a number of OL in the 2015 draft. As they gain experience, expect the line to begin opening more holes for Gurley. And when that happens, look out. I would absolutely buy Gurley if you can.
Popping: WRs Whose Stock is Soaring
Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Let’s not complicate this. Diggs has a solid 34 points in standard leagues and an impressive 50 points in PPR leagues. He’s coming off a solid rookie season featuring four games in a row of 80 or more yards. What’s even more amazing however is that with Adrian Peterson out, the Vikings might actually target Diggs more than before. Diggs is definitely popping and should continue to do so. I would try and get some Diggs shares if you can. In fact, I think he will finish higher than the current number one receiver, who is….
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers
A lot of us here at SCFE were down Benjamin and he’s making us all look like fools. He has just under 200 yards and three touchdowns so far. But that’s also why I think he will slow down. There is no way he maintains his current pace of 24 touchdowns this season! Additionally, Carolina’s first two opponents, Denver and San Francisco, are both in the top five fantasy defenses currently. As the defensive match-ups get easier for Carolina, I expect them to run more as Carolina is about three percentage points below their rush percentage from last year.
Meanwhile, if it wasn’t for Benjamin and Diggs, the player who might be popping most unexpectedly is…
Quincy Enunwa, WR, New York Jets
Did you see what Enunwa did in last week’s TNF game? He was an absolute beast catching pretty much everything throw his way.
And even when he wasn’t catching passes, he was drawing pass interference calls. Enunwa is currently a top 20 WR and with the chance that Brandon Marshall is out this week, expect his production to only increase. Speaking of players who should see increased production due to injury….
Popping: RBs Whose Stock is Soaring
Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
After under-delivering last year, Gordon is off to a great start with 159 rushing yards and three TDs. And that was with Danny Woodhead in the lineup. With Woodhead out, expect to see Gordon get even more touches/snaps. Gordon is 7th best scoring RB right now and would possibly be a late first rounder maybe late second rounder if you drafted today. He’s been producing and his arrow is still pointing up. But what about the Chargers signing Dexter McCluster? Think nothing of it. We’ve been down this road before with McCluster. If anything, I would worry about Kenneth Farrow taking over the Woodhead role. But with the Indianapolis Colts, who have given up the most fantasy points to RBs this year next up for the Chargers, continue to expect big things from Gordon.
And finally for those of you in deeper leagues….
Peyton Barber, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dwayne Washington RB, Detroit Lions
Let’s start with Barber because I think the secret is out with Washington. Barber is not particularly fast. He’s not particularly big. What he is though is a good between the tackles runner, something Charles Sims is not. He got promoted to the first team and it would not be surprise to see him get some of the early down work.
It would be a surprise however if Dwayne Washington did not see some work. Head Coach Jim Caldwell already confirmed that Washington’s role will expand with Ameer Abdullah going on IR. He should see some goal-line work and another handful of carries. He probably won’t maintain his 5+ YPC average, but that average has earned him opportunity. Just so you know, I’m putting my money where my mouth is–I just dropped more than 10% of my FAAB budget acquiring him.
Of course that’s because I am chasing the Diggs owner….
Done reading about falling and rising player values? Looking for something else? Maybe try My Playbook to figure out who is going to pop or drop next.
- Week 16 Stock Report: My Stock - December 23, 2018
- Week 15 Stock Report: Playoff Buys For Weeks 15 and 16 - December 15, 2018
- Week 14 Rookie Report: Who Is THIS Guy? - December 9, 2018