Last week was a solid start for my Daily Fantasy Strategy suggestions. For the Week 5 DFS strategy, I want to try and hit some singles with the home runs.
I definitely hit a couple of gold mines with Ezekiel Elliott, Andy Dalton, and Saquon Barkley. The problem with my optimal lineup was the other players. There were too many strikeouts and not enough singles.
What I mean is that with the Week 5 DFS strategy I am going to make sure every player has a high floor of production. Nothing is worse for your daily lineup than a negative player. By negative player, I mean someone who is giving almost nothing in return.
So with the Week 5 DFS strategy I am hoping to hit a few home runs and mix in some singles and doubles. The Week 5 DFS strategy uses the prices from Draft Kings. I also am focusing on the most popular slate of just the non-primetime Sunday games.
All of the information for the Week 5 DFS strategy is up to date as of October 3rd.
Week 5 DFS Strategy
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams, $5,100
The Rams have given up the 9th fewest Fantasy Points to quarterbacks. This stat is a bit misleading though. If you take out Arizona game (which, as we know, is the worst quarterback situation in the league) Los Angeles is giving up 327 yards passing a game. They have allowed five passing touchdowns over the last two games.
Yes, I know Wilson has had progressively less Fantasy Points and passing yards with each game this season. However, I think that has more to do with game script. Seattle has yet to be in a high-scoring game; no one has reached 28 points in any game with them this season. The Rams will pass 30 easily, possibly by halftime. Take Wilson at the lowest point that you can ever roster him on DK. He is the best play of the Week 5 DFS strategy.
Others I Like: Blake Bortles, $5,500; Matthew Stafford, $5,700; Cam Newton, $6,400
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, $6,300
T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs, $5,600
This is the week, DJ truthers. As part of my Week 5 DFS strategy I am taking a stand on the David Johnson hill. The 49ers have given up at least 27.6 Fantasy Points to running backs in each of the last three games. Melvin Gordon just absolutely torched their defense. I mean, Johnson’s actually been good the last couple of weeks with 35.7 Fantasy Points. This is the week that I think he busts out.
— Darren Urban (@Cardschatter) October 3, 2018
I do not like the price point for getting a “back-up, fill-in” running back, but I want any and every part of a running back facing Kansas City. As good as Pat Mahomes has been on one side of the ball, the Chiefs’ defense has been just as bad on the other side. Outside of the Week 2 game in which Kansas City jumped out to an early 21-0 lead, the Chiefs have given up an average of 137 yards rushing to running backs.
Others I Like: Bilal Powell, $4,400; Kerryon Johnson, $4,600; Christian McCaffrey, $8,000; and Dion Lewis, $5,400
Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams, $5,000
Golden Tate, Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers, $6,700
Juju Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons, $7,500
Baldwin was eased back in last weekend, but still managed five catches on seven targets. That was also a slow-moving, low-scoring game. Now, with another week of recovery under his belt, Wilson’s main target will be a full-go in a game that Seattle will have to sling it around to keep up.
Only Adam Thielen has played in multiple games and is averaging more Fantasy Points per game among the receivers in the Sunday day games than Golden Tate. Yet, Tate is the 14th highest salary on the board at the position. He has at least six catches in all four games this season. You’re looking at an extremely high floor mixed with the ability to be a top overall scorer at the position.
— Pat Doney (@PatDoneyNBC5) September 30, 2018
Taking it back to last week, look to Vegas for this last receiver. The Falcons/Steelers game has one of the highest over/under totals you will see in the NFL. People are off Smith-Schuster after just four catches for 60 yards last week. However, if you look at the type of game, it was a slog it out, low-scoring, classic AFC North battle. Sunday should be closer to the previous two games the Steelers played, in which there were 136 points scored. In those two contests, Juju received 30 (!) targets of which he caught 22 passes for 237 yards.
Others I Like: Amari Cooper, $5,500; Tyler Lockett, $4,600; Mike Williams, $4,200; and Devin Funchess, $5,200
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,000
After the last few weeks and the rash of tight ends getting injured, I am willing to pay a premium on the position going forward. There are just too few dependable players at the position. As I said earlier, it is all about avoiding a negative player. I’ll shell out for Kelce, the best tight end in the league.
Others I Like: Jared Cook, $4,800; Jimmy Graham, $4,700, and Tyler Kroft, $2,900
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills, $4,000
The Bills are giving up more than 20% more Fantasy Points to opposing defenses than any other team in the league. It was a massive payoff to go against them last week, and I’m riding that train again. The Titans have at least three sacks in three straight games and should get their turnover problems straightened out.
Others I Like: Baltimore Ravens, $2,800; Philadelphia Eagles, $2,600; and Arizona Cardinals, $2,900
Corey Grant, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs, $3,700
— Hays Carlyon (@HaysCarlyon) October 3, 2018
As I said, I want all of the running backs facing the Chiefs. In the two games that Fournette missed, Grant had just 17 touches for 79 total yards. However, one of those games was the less than thrilling 9-6 loss to Tennessee. In the higher scoring game against New England, Grant had 12.9 Fantasy Points, including six receptions. I think that is the type of workload he will get against a worse defense in Kansas City, so 13 points would be his floor.
That’s it for the Week 5 DFS strategy! Let’s go win some money!
- Early Look Ahead to the 2019 Fantasy Football Season - December 31, 2018
- Week 14 DFS Strategy: Deciphering the New Starting Running Landscape - December 9, 2018
- Week 13 DFS Strategy : The Quest For 170 Points And A Win - December 1, 2018