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Well that could have gone better. I preach about accountability in start or sit predictions then I tell you to sit Julio Jones.

You know, the same Julio Jones who had 300 yards receiving last Sunday.

But, as I pointed out last week, my start or sit columns will be all about accountability. So I will own up to my mistake on Julio Jones along with saying to start Eli Manning.

Overall, it was not an atrocious week from a percentage stand point. My picks were 6-9-1 but with major wins on “start” Brian Hoyer and “sits” Charles Sims and Delanie Walker.

I take a little solace in the fact that no one sat Julio because I said to. But they probably avoided those guys with better options.

This week is all about Tom Brady’s vengeful return. After sitting out his four game suspension and watching his team go 3-1, I’m sure Brady has heard the chatter about it being Jimmy Garoppolo’s team or that he diminishes his value. He heard it all and the Browns will take the punishment. He is the biggest lock to be the top-scoring player this week more than any other this season.

Nevertheless, let’s get to my Week 5 Start or Sit picks.

If a guy outperforms his ranking as a Start, then it’s a win. If he does so as a Sit, then it’s a loss. Vice versa for the under performing. If someone outperforms/under-performs their ranking by 12 or more spots, it will be a Major Win. By these metrics, my Start or Sit predictions are 16-17-1 for the year, with 12 Major Wins.

Once again, for our Start or Sit purposes I am going to focus on guys that are ranked outside of the Top 24 RB/WRs and Top 10 QB/TEs for my “starts,” and inside the Top 20 RB/WRs and Top 8 QB/TEs for my “sits.”

Week 5 Start or Sit

(All consensus rankings are based off the staff consensus PPR rankings for each position.)

Start

Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys (QB13)

I am slightly higher on Dalton than his consensus but I am more confident that he will finish as a Top-10 option this week than a few guys ahead of him. San Francisco might have found a weakness in the Dallas defense last week with the quarterback keeping on zone reads. Toss in the fact that the Cowboys will be working in a couple of guys returning from suspension, and I can see Dalton having a big day.

Drew Stanton, QB, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (QB27)

Now this is strictly if Carson Palmer is ruled out, but if he is then I would trust Stanton in deeper or 2-QB leagues. Dak Prescott just tore apart the 49ers’ secondary and now they will have to stack the box more without Navarro Bowman. Stanton will have more weapons than any other quarterback in the league and he is sufficient enough to use them.

Terrance West, RB, Baltimore Ravens vs. Washington Redskins (RB25)

West just makes the cut as an available “start” but I have him ranked much higher. Washington has given up the most rushing yards in the league and the second most Fantasy Points to opposing running backs. With Justin Forsett out of the picture, West will get a heavy work load. But keep an eye on Kenneth Dixon in the future.

James White, RB, New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns (RB35)

Tom Brady is back with a vengeance and I think the entire New England offense goes off in this one. James White was drafted by many to play that Dion Lewis role but has completely busted to this point. If he is on the waiver wire, grab him now before he performs as a Top-15 option this weekend.

Ryan Mathews, RB, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions (RB33)

The Lions have given up the 8th most rushing yards in the league, but zero touchdowns somehow. I don’t think this is some Red Zone/Goal Line magic, but more just coincidence. Regression is coming in the form of Ryan Mathews. He will be light on touches as he comes back from injury, but will get the goal line work.

Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (WR27)

He was on this list last week and he will be on it until he is ranked inside the Top 24. He has three straight games with 7+ targets and Eli is getting more and more comfortable throwing to him. Green Bay has given up the second most Fantasy Points per game to opposing wide receivers and I think this is a shootout.

Robert Woods, WR, Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams (WR36)

The more I watch Woods, the more I think there is not that much of a difference between him and Sammy Watkins from a talent perspective. Los Angeles has given up the third most yards to opposing wide receivers. However their defensive backs are just not the strong point of their defense and I think Woods takes advantage in finding the end zone.

Chris Hogan, WR, New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns (WR39)

As I said, I like the entire Patriots’ offense this week. Think of Tom Brady as Anakin Skywalker after his mother died.


Cameron Brate, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (TE14)

While I don’t expect the Panthers to give up 500+ yards passing again, they do give up Fantasy Points to tight ends. Carolina has given up the fourth most Fantasy Points per game and the third most touchdowns to tight ends. I expect the Panthers to shell over the top on Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson while leaving Brate lanes in the middle.

Miami Dolphins D/ST vs. Tennessee Titans (DST13)

There’s not many good options, but the Titans give the ball up twice a game and are prone to sacks from the interior defensive line.

Sit

Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions (QB8)

As efficient as Wentz has been, he has yet to crack 22 Fantasy Points in a game. The matchup is strong, but I just don’t see the volume to warrant this high of a ranking. Give me Dalton, Flacco, Hoyer or Winston over the rookie.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston Texans (RB 18)

Even without J.J. Watt Houston can stop the run. They have also only given up 8 catches for 82 yards to running backs through the first four games. McKinnon had a strong game against the Giants but I don’t see that continuing.

Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots (RB20)

As I said before, I think New England scores a ton in this game. What that means, is Cleveland will have to throw to try and catch up. This will be a Duke Johnson game and not as much of Crowell. Although Crowell’s recent gesture was nothing but classy.

Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles (WR11)

Jones will be a solid option most weeks, but people are still blinded by that 200+ yard outburst a couple of weeks ago. Philadelphia has yet to give up a touchdown to an opposing wide receiver and given up the fewest receptions in the league.

Michael Crabtree, WR, Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers (WR18)

In another case of recency bias, Crabtree is ranked ahead of Sterling Shepard, Randall Cobb, Terrelle Pryor and Larry Fitzgerald, and just behind teammate Amari Cooper. Three touchdowns will not be coming the former Red Raider’s way each week.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston Texans (TE7)

Rudolph has had a strong start to the season and seems to be one of Sam Bradford’s favorite targets. However, I hate the matchup. Houston has given up just 92 yards to tight ends through four games. This will be a low-scoring affair and I doubt Rudolph will have an impact.


That’s it for your Week 5 Start or Sit plays! If you have any lineup questions, shoot them to us on Twitter @Tomlin3 or @SoCalledFanEx.

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