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Week 6 Pitching Planner: Regression To What We Thought

Week 6 Pitching Planner
Photo Credit: Keith Allison

With the Week 6 Pitching Planner, offenses are starting to shape out more of how the majority of analysts thought they would in the preseason. That’s the thing with planning your pitching for the week: it depends more on the opposing offense than the pitcher in question.

If you look at the bottom eight teams in runs scored (MIL, SD, SF, KC, CWS, MIN, BAL, and MIA) I would have bet that all eight would have been in the bottom third in offensive production.

On the flip side, the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Astros, Angels, and Nationals would have all been my top offenses going into the season. All are now in the Top 7 in total production.

The one outlier is the Atlanta Braves. I did not have high hopes or a horrible projection. The emergence of young guys (Dansby Swanson, Ryan Flaherty and now Ronald Acuna) has made them a dangerous team for the season.

I missed last week’s pitching planner by a bonehead submission error. So entering the Week 6 Pitching Planner my streaming options are a solid 5-3.

For the Week 6 pitching planner I am using ownership percentages from ESPN and the information is up to date as of May 5th.

Week 6 Pitching Planner

2-Start Pitchers

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Zack Godley, ARI at LAD, vs. WAS

Sean Newcomb, ATL at TB, at MIA

Dylan Bundy, BAL vs. KC, vs. TB – A couple of great matchups for Bundy this week.

Drew Pomeranz, BOS at NYY, at TOR – On the opposite end, horrendous matchups for Pomeranz. With Josh Donaldson back and the bash brothers hitting their stride, I am staying away from the AL East.

Kyle Hendricks, CHC vs. MIA, vs. CWS

Homer Bailey, CIN vs. NYM, at LAD

Luis Castillo, CIN vs. NYM, at LAD

Jon Gray, COL vs. LAA, vs. MIL

Michael Fulmer, at TEX, vs. SEA

Dallas Keuchel, HOU at OAK, vs. TEX

Danny Duffy, KC at BAL, at CLE

Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. ARI, vs. CIN

Jaime Garcia and Jose Urena MIA at CHC, vs. ATL

Wade Miley, MIL vs. CLE, at COL

Fernando Romero, MIN at STL, at LAA

Jacob deGrom, NYM at CIN, at PHI

Luis Severino, NYY vs. BOS, vs. OAK

Zach Eflin, PHI vs. SF, vs. NYM

Tyson Ross and Clayton Richard, SD vs. WAS, vs. STL

Jeff Samardzija and Derek Holland, SF at PHI, at PIT

James Paxton, SEA at TOR, at DET

Matt Moore, TEX vs. DET, at HOU

Marcus Stroman, TOR vs. SEA, vs. BOS

Stephen Strasburg and Jeremy Hellickson, WAS at SD, at ARI – A couple of great matchups for the Nationals’ duo.

Good Matchups

Mike Foltynewicz, ATL at  MIA

Jose Quintana, CHC vs. MIA

Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, CLE at MIL

Gio Gonzalez, WAS at SD – See above.

Bad Matchups

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Jose Berrios, MIN at LAA – Any pitchers in the Yankees/Red Sox series. The combined offenses with the always apparent possibility for ejection are not a good makeup for Fantasy success.

Sean Manaea, OAK vs. HOU

James Paxton, SEA at TOR

Blake Snell, TB vs. ATL

Cole Hamels, TEX at HOU – Hamels has not been terrible against the Astros this year… yet.

Streaming Options

Chris Tillman, BAL vs. KC (0.5% ownership)

I was high on Tillman in the preseason and it looks bad now with his 9.24 ERA and 1-5 record. However, five of his six starts have been against Top-10 offenses, four against teams in the Top 5. The one start against a mediocre team (DET) he went seven innings giving up just a single hit. The home run ball has been a problem, but the Royals have the second-fewest in the league.

Andrew Cashner, BAL vs. KC (6.7% ownership)

Cashner has also had a problem with the long ball, giving up nine already on the young season. The Royals are just what the doctor ordered.

German Marquez, COL vs. MIL (6% ownership)

I’m giving Marquez again. He’s another guy who does well against bad offenses (5 ER in 26IP) and bad against good offenses (13ER in 8IP). Milwaukee is a bad offense.

Nick Pivetta, PHI vs. SF (39.1% ownership)

After a scorching start to the year, Pivetta has gotten roughed up in his last two starts, including giving up two bombs to Bryce Harper in one inning. The Giants are a good medicine to get back on track.

That’s it for the Week 6 pitching planner. Be sure to check out the injury report for last week.

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