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Last week was one of my best yet with my Weekly Value Based Drafting strategy.

My lineup (below) gave you a solid score of 141.54, good enough to win the majority of heads-up or double-up competitions.

As I have said previously, the WVBD strategy is more for those type of Weekly Fantasy games. For the bigger tournaments, you need to have multiple entries with small tweaks between each one.

Now let’s see if I can continue to grow the strategy and avoid the pitfalls of Jordan Matthews and the Jacksonville defense.

As usual these prices and projections are for the Fan Duel style of play, but I have thrown in a few Draft Kings nuggets as well. The Value Factor (VF) is a quantity of the player’s projected points against the cost to put him on your roster.

My optimum lineup yielded:

Blake Bortles 25.94
Devonta Freeman 31.6
Lamar Miller 18.8
Julian Edelman 14.2
Allen Robinson 17.6
Jordan Matthews 6.9
Rob Gronkowski 12.5
Matt Prater 13
Jaguars D/ST 1

Week 7 Daily Fantasy Football: Value Based Drafting Targets

Value of the Week: Todd Gurley, VF : 4.28

Coming off of a bye week, Todd Gurley is my top projected scorer this weekend against the Cleveland Browns. In their last five games Cleveland has given up 111 yards rushing to Ronnie Hillman, 121 yards to Justin Forsett, 139 yards to Latavius Murray, and 98 yards (on just 10 carries) to Dexter McCluster.

Now they get the hottest back in the league with Gurley, who put up 146 and 159 yards in his two full games this season. This could get ugly and it will only cost you $7,400 or the 10th most money for a running back. At Draft Kings, Gurley only costs you $5,000 and will be a must-own.

 

QB Values

Andrew Luck, VF : 3.91

Carson Palmer, VF : 3.96

Philip Rivers, VF : 3.97

Eli Manning, VF : 4.01

Although these quarterbacks have lower VF’s than Gurley, the high amount of QBs with value makes them less of a value play than the Rams back. I do expect Luck to bounce back in a big way this week and I have him outscoring every other signal caller by a wide margin making him worth the high cost.

Palmer and Rivers are still being priced too low. They have been Top Five Fantasy options and they are almost a thousand dollars less than Tom Brady and Luck.

Eli is moderately priced but his projection against the Cowboys, who he always seems to have good games against, is higher than normal for him.

 

RB Values

Devonta Freeman, VF : 4.51

Latavius Murray, VF : 4.99

Lamar Miller, VF : 5.01

LeVeon Bell, VF : 5.02

Once again, until further notice Devonta Freeman is worth every penny, every week. The guy has been just destroying it since taking over the lead role in Atlanta and you are almost at a disadvantage if you don’t have him on your team because the majority of people will.

Lamar Miller had a strong bounce back game last week and I think it will continue. Dan Campbell knows what the Dolphins need to do to succeed and that is utilize their versatile running back.

With Landry Jones in, expect a heavy workload for Bell while Murray is priced extremely too low at $7,000. Frank Gore is a solid value at Draft Kings with just a $4,900 price tag as well as LeSean McCoy at just $5,500.

 

WR Values

Larry Fitzgerald, VF : 4.91

Steve Smith Sr., VF : 5.31

Julian Edelman, VF : 5.34

Allen Robinson, VF : 5.36

Larry Fitzgerald has become Larry Fitzgerald again… but the price does not match that happening at just $7,800. Actually, he might have always been the same guy but Carson Palmer just kept getting hurt.

Julian Edelman had a down week against the Colts, and he still scored over 14 points. In any sort of PPR scoring system, he is going to project as one of, if not the top receiver of the week and is worth the $8,000 on Fan Duel.

Smith’s price tag of $6,900 is more about his health, but I will roll the dice and have him projected to score as a WR1. Allen Robinson continues to be the benefactor of Blake Bortles’ emergence as a viable Fantasy option and his price tag is worth it.

Over at Draft Kings, Michael Crabtree and Brandin Cooks are priced too low and I have them projected to outscore their price tags.

 

TE Values

Antonio Gates, VF : 5.44

Greg Olsen, VF : 5.68

The Chargers have figured out that their running game will not win many contests and they are letting Phillip Rivers sling it around. That benefits the ageless Antonio Gates who has 18 catches for 187 yards and two touchdowns in his two games back from suspension. I think he continues to see around 14 targets a game and will become elite once again.

Olsen is all Cam Newton has with regards to consistency, and no one has figured that out yet. Somehow the best secondary in the league could not even keep track of him on the game’s deciding play. I have Olsen as the top scoring tight end and his value is strong at just $6,400.

Crockett Gillmore has the best value on Draft Kings, if he plays, at just $2,500 and Delanie Walker brings some value there as well with a $3,900 price tag.

 

My All-Value Team

QB: Eli Manning

RB: Devonta Freeman

RB: Todd Gurley

WR: Larry Fitzgerald

WR: Allen Robinson

WR: Steve Smith Sr.

TE: Antonio Gates

D/ST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

K: Matt Prater

I really wanted to put Philip Rivers in for the Chargers’ stack, but it was $100 over the budget. I could see swapping out Robinson for a slightly lower priced receiver, maybe his teammate Allen Hurns, and keeping Rivers in at quarterback.

I am going to roll against Kirk Cousins on the road with my defense and hope that he has plenty of interceptions and sacks to give away. Matt Prater worked well last week and I think it might have to do with the Lions’ lack of a power rushing game in the red zone.

I’ll se ya next week with more Value Based Drafting Targets.

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