Another up and down week for my Weekly Value Based Drafting system as I gave the Top-2 running backs (and five of the top fifteen) but the receivers and quarterbacks left something to be desired.
My tight ends look bad with Gates not even playing, but hopefully you subbed Ladarius Green in for him and reaped the benefits.
I think I did find another niche in value with running backs: the player that is highly touted in the pre-season but has not completely lived up to the hype.
Last week it was Lamar Miller putting on one of the best Fantasy halves in the history of the game. This week my money is on Justin Forsett, even though he completely let me down in the second half Monday night.
As usual these prices and projections are for the Fan Duel style of play, but I have thrown in a few Draft Kings nuggets as well. The Value Factor (VF) is a quantity of the player’s projected points against the cost to put him on your roster.
Value Based Drafting Targets
Value of the Week:
Justin Forsett, VF : 4.09
Forsett has averaged over 16 points a game over the last four weeks while scoring in the two of the last three games. He is beginning to look like the player he was last season, and if Joe Flacco would learn how to check down then he would really explode. I have him scoring the fourth most points of any running back this week while being priced 13th highest.
Alex Smith, VF : 3.57
Cam Newton, VF : 3.68
Eli Manning, VF : 3.91
I have Cam Newton projected as the top scoring quarterback this week and he is priced as just the 9th highest. Indianapolis’ defense has not exactly been putting fear into opposing quarterbacks.
Smith and Eli and just two lower priced options that are playing bad defenses and have receivers worthy of a stack.
Matt Forte, VF : 4.49
Devonta Freeman, VF : 4.56
Le’Veon Bell, VF : 4.57
Todd Gurley, VF : 4.82
I really do not see many good lower priced values on Fan Duel. They have really stepped their game up when it comes to pricing running backs.
With that said, I will pair Forsett with one of these elite options. Each of the four has a slightly different cost so I will probably just work out which receivers I want before deciding on which elite back I can afford.
On Draft Kings however, Darren McFadden at $2800 is quite a good cost and Lamar Miller at $4700 is highway robbery.
Jeremy Maclin, VF : 4.86
Demaryius Thomas, VF : 5.06
Antonio Brown, VF : 5.08
Michael Crabtree, VF : 5.11
As I said with Alex Smith, I like the Chiefs stack this week as they should bounce back at home against a bad Detroit team. If Maclin plays, I have him projected in the top five at the position.
If Ben Roethlisberger plays expect Antonio Brown’s targets to get back to the legendary proportions of last season. I also think the Broncos will be having to play catch up to Green Bay so Thomas should see a solid amount of looks.
Michael Crabtree is an interesting play: I have him projected in the top-10 but he is playing a good pass defense with the Jets. However I do think Amari Cooper will draw the focus leaving Crabtree in some one-on-one matchups.
I like all of these same guys on Draft Kings, along with Nate Washington at only $3600.
Greg Olsen’s insane target share by week: 1 – 7% 2 – 33% 3 – 36% 4 – 30% 6 – 32%
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 22, 2015
Greg Olsen, VF : 5.26
Travis Kelce, VF : 5.54
Olsen will be a great stack opportunity with Cam Newton along with Kelce if you just want to go all in with Kansas City. Tight end values have been quite dependent on touchdowns to really get a great score, but I will stick to my guns and go with consistency at the position.
As far as touchdown dependency goes, I like Austin Sefarian-Jenkins as a low-cost guy. On Draft Kings his price of just $2800 gives the rest of your roster a good amount of flexibility.
My All-Value Team
QB: Alex Smith
RB: Justin Forsett
RB: Matt Forte
WR: Jeremy Maclin
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Demaryius Thomas
TE: Greg Olsen
D/ST: Nick Folk
K: San Francisco 49ers
This lineup is very dependent on both Maclin and Roethlisberger playing. If Maclin does not, then I slid in Crabtree and replace Forte with Freeman. If both do not, then I might go with Eli at quarterback and throw in Odell Beckham.
If all of the above do play, I love the Chiefs’ stack combined with the two pass catching running backs. Nick Folk cost me a season long game last week so I might have a little spite with that pick.
The 49ers have not been as bad on defense and now get to play Nick Foles.
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