In my week 8 DFS Sleepers and Busts column, I will make sure not to pick players that I think will allow you to tie for first place in your league. See where I’m going with this? Could Monday Night’s football game have been the worst and greatest game ever? It wasn’t like the Eagles vs. Vikings game on Sunday where there was a turnover, it felt like, on every other play.
It was a well-played game by the skilled position players. No turnovers whatsoever. Now the kickers on the other hand… Don’t get me started on the kicking game.
It may have been one of the best weeks regarding my sleeper picks from last week. Busts were up in the air. Lets take a look back at the Week 7 picks.
Andy Dalton 23.3 DK, 20.3 FD
Bills Defense 0 DK & FD
Cordarrelle Patterson 19.7 DK, 16.2 FD
Jimmy Graham 10.3 DK, 7.8 FD
|LeGarrette Blount 29.4 DK, 25.9 FD|
|Marcus Mariota 17.7 DK, 16.7 FD||Blake Bortles 15.1 DK & FD|
|Golden Tate 15.3 DK, 12.3 FD||Antonio Brown 21.9 DK, 15.4 FD|
Swing and Miss
|Cameron Brate 5.9 DK, 4.4 FD||Drew Brees 28.7 DK, 25.7 FD|
|LeVeon Bell 24.9 DK, 19.9 FD|
|Matt Forte 33.4 DK, 27.4 FD|
These next two weeks are crucial in season long, as well as DFS leagues, as we are brutally attacked by the bye weeks. Six teams on bye each of the next two weeks and you want to make sure you hit on a lot of your players in the coming weeks. There are a bunch of cheap quarterbacks on the DFS sites, even with the amount of teams on a bye. I found the same strategy with running backs as well. Lets not give too much away to you clowns. Here are the sleepers and busts for Week 8 of the NFL season.
Week 8 DFS Sleepers and Busts
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5,900 DK, 7,800 FD)
Would you just look at it?! Derek Carr’s price on DraftKings in particular had me do a double take. The Bucs give up the 17th most Fantasy points to quarterbacks but this stat can absolutely be misleading. Yes, they played Matt Ryan in Week 1 but let’s look at the other QBs the Bucs have faced; Carson palmer, Case Keenum, Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemian, Derek Anderson and Colin Kaepernick. The Buccaneers should be in the bottom 10 at least in Fantasy points to quarterbacks allowed having played those kinds of quarterbacks.
Carr is a much better player than all of the names I listed above. It’s very interesting as well, that the Raiders have won all of their road games this season. Carr has been a very solid for the price, especially if you are playing through DraftKings. Do me a favor please and don’t forget to start your Carr.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Oakland Raiders (5,700 DK, 7,400 FD)
Derek Carr’s opponent for the week, Jameis Winston, looks real nice on DraftKings if I do say so myself. He is playing at home and taking on one of the worst defenses in the NFL against the pass. I wouldn’t be scared to roll with Winston on Sunday.
They are one of the few teams who rank in the Top 8 in both points allowed and points scored offensively. This game looks to be a touchdown matching affair. There’s a reason why the over/under for this game is one of the highest for the week. Start both quarterbacks this weekend.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6,800 DK, 7,900 FD)
The Chiefs lead the league in interceptions with 10, even with them playing one less game due to the bye week. They allow the 11th fewest Fantasy points to quarterbacks and they have played some great ones; Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr and Drew Brees.
Luck also isn’t great with ball security as he has a total of six turnovers thus far (4 Interceptions & 2 fumbles). In that memorable comeback game against the Chiefs in the playoffs two years ago, he did throw four touchdowns but also had three picks. This is a tough matchup and I would look elsewhere, unless you are feeling lucky.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (6,200 DK, 7,300 FD)
Derek Carr vs. Buccaneers , Alex Smith vs. Colts, Jameis Winston vs. Raiders, Carson Wentz vs. Cowboys. There were also a few others that are well below this outrageous price for Ryan Fitzpatrick. That is way too high for me. I’m not sure if I would roster him even at the minimum salary. We are talking about a guy that almost has double the amount of interceptions as he does touchdowns. The matchup is very favorable, which is what is driving the price but I just can’t trust a guy who threw six interceptions in one game. Six is also the amount of touchdowns he has in seven games. The guy was benched for Geno Smith for a reason. He is not good!
Running Back Sleepers
Devontae Booker, Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers (3,700 DK, 5,600 FD)
Booker will be one of the most owned DFS players this weekend. Book it. Weak joke, I hear you. C.J. Anderson went in for arthroscopic knee surgery on Wednesday, which ultimately puts an end to his season.
Snaps were increasing each week and looked like he was going to overtake Anderson anyway. With Anderson out, he could be a Top 10 back right out of the gate this weekend against the San Diego Chargers. Booker is going to be a beast and if everyone else owns him, like I’ve always said, you don’t want to be the guy late for the book signing. Alright, I’ll stop.
Darren Sproles, Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (3,700 DK, 4,900 FD)
Ryan Matthews had a brutal fumble last weekend and the little hamster, Darren Sproles, has seen more and more snaps. Sproles has out snapped Matthews every game this season (tied for snaps in Week 7) but Matthews has seen more touches overall. The price for Sproles as a dart throw isn’t a bad one though.
I found comments from head coach Doug Pederson interesting as he talked about how he isn’t down on Ryan Matthews, but that fatigue could be a factor for him and that they could turn to Wendell Smallwood or Darren Sproles in clock-killing situations. No one can predict these NFC East battles, but I wouldn’t mind throwing Sproles into a few of my DFS lineups this weekend.
Running Back Busts
Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (5,700 DK, 7,200 FD)
The way to attack Denver is on the ground. Gordon is fourth in Fantasy points this season and leads all running backs and receivers with 10 total touchdowns.
So why is he on the bust list?
Here is the stat: 3.3 yards per carry. He is averaging around 66 yards per game. He is such a touchdown dependent guy and he has come through for you this season in that department but this pace is unsustainable.
Gordon played Denver in Week 6, which was his worst game of the season. In fact, it was the only game in which he failed to score a touchdown. He needed 27 carries to reach 94 yards. This time around, the Chargers have to travel to Denver and that is not a great place to play. I would sell Gordon as fast as I can.
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals (4,900 DK, 6,100 FD)
That front seven of the Arizona Cardinals dominated Christine Michael last Monday and have pretty much held running backs in check all season. They have given up the second fewest Fantasy points to RBs this season. Other than the 110 yard rushing day by LeSean McCoy, the next big game by a running back against the Cardinals was from Carlos Hyde, when he ran for 78 yards on 22 carries. I don’t expect any touchdowns from Jonathan Stewart to salvage his day and if they do get in close to the goal line, you have to think big Mike Tolbert could vulture his chance.
Wide Receiver Sleepers
Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers, at Atlanta Falcons (5,300 DK)
For some reason, I could not find him on FanDuel but hey, there’s always DraftKings! I would absolutely load up on this game in your DFS formats. It would not shock me if each team put up 30-plus. Now watch it be a 21-17 game…
Running backs Don Jackson and Knile Davis should be more in tune with the play book, but could we see eight carries this weekend, to go along with eight catches from Ty? I think that is absolutely possible. He has 10 catches in each of the last two weeks and continues to be peppered with targets.
Multiple reports have said that Desmond Trufant is likely to shadow Jordy Nelson which will free up Montgomery. The TY stands for Thank You Desmond Trufant. Not to embarrass the Falcons or anything, but they give up the second most passing yards, third most passing touchdowns (15 total) as well as the most completions. It just shows you how great that Falcons offense has been when they are still sitting at 4-3 on the season.
We know Aaron Rodgers is good, but he is especially good against the Falcons. He has a 68.7% completion percentage, 1,380 passing yards, 9 TDs to just a single INT and a mint 116 QBR in four games. If you love yourself some offense, this game is going to be insane. Again, load up on your Falcons and Packers.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (3,900 DK, 5,200 FD)
This was a blind fold, but Lockett could be a real nice tournament play. Similar to the call I made last weekend with Cordarrelle Patterson, all you need is one.
Both similar players and the matchup can’t get any better. The Saints rank sixth in yards per attempt which could lead to a few big plays down the field for Lockett. They also rank 12th in yards per game allowed and that is with one less game on the slate having already seen a bye week. This is also an amazing matchup for Russell Wilson who has always thrown a fantastic deep ball. I see the Seahawks getting back on track in the Superdome.
Wide Receiver Busts
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks (7,300 DK, 7,200 FD)
Both sites view Brandin Cooks very different this week but I just think that the Seahawks bottle this guy up and shut him down. He is the absolute definition of boom or bust. He has had two games this season with over 33 DraftKings points but also two games with less than 6.1 points through DraftKings scoring. The Seahawks defense are too disciplined to let Cooks get behind them, even on the road. This is a tough draw for Cooks.
Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers (6,200 DK, 7,00 FD)
I am not a big fan of Thomas and the way he plays the position. He doesn’t fight for the ball like a receiver should and is way too soft. He is third in drops last year with nine and is right on pace again with four drops. Thomas has salvaged his day in numerous games by scoring a TD. Having failed to reach 100 yards one time this season, this offense is just not suited for him.
Trevor Siemian does not throw a great deep ball as evidenced by his 6.9 yards per pass attempt which is 10th worst in the NFL. Thomas averages just 65 yards a game which will not get it done for this price in DFS. In Week 6 against the Chargers, he caught 5-of-10 targets for 35 yards. I want no part of Thomas this weekend.
Tight End Sleeper
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (3,600 DK, 4,800 FD)
Little known fact, Ertz is the league leader in Fantasy team names involving his name! Enough of that, on to Fantasy analysis. The Dallas Cowboys have given up the fifth most Fantasy points to the tight end position this season. This is the matchup for him to break out. If he doesn’t do it this week, then I am not sure what to make out of the former second round draft pick. He looks to be fully healthy, and I can’t knock him for his performance last week against the Minnesota Vikings. The guy is due.
Tight End Bust
Hunter Henry, San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (3,700 DK, 5,800 FD)
I am for sure not using him in FanDuel this weekend due to the tough matchup with Denver. Head Coach Mike McCoy did say that he hopes Hunter Henry can play this weekend, after passing the concussion protocol. He did play well aganst the Denver Broncos the last time they played them in Week 6, but playing in Denver is a whole different ball game. Stay away from Henry this weekend.
Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans (2,500 DK, 4,300)
Looking to pay up for the positional players this week? I mean, did you see how bad Brock Osweiler looked the other night? Yes, it was against the Denver Broncos defense, but the guy throws ducks down the field. I could see another one of those ducks finding a Lion in this game. Also, the Lions have a sack in every game this season. Punt play, initiated.
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (3,400 DK, 4,700 FD)
I’m not saying I hate the Jets defense this weekend, but the price is slightly too high for this guy. They are amazing against the run but the absolute opposite against the pass. It is looking more and more likely that we see Josh McCown on Sunday. Say whatever you want about the guy, but I think I can say confidently that he is a better quarterback than Cody Kessler. For the record, in my pigskin pick’em, I went with the Browns in this game.
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- Week 16 DFS Sleepers and Busts: My Savage Christmas - December 23, 2016