My Weekly Value Based Drafting targets were hit or miss last week, but for the most part should have given you some winners in heads-up weekly Fantasy match-ups.
My top play, Justin Forsett, definitely let me down, but my quarterbacks were quite strong with Eli Manning’s six touchdowns and Alex Smith’s high rushing day.
My other running backs got bit by the injury bug with both Matt Forte and Le’Veon Bell going down, while Devonta Freeman under-performed for the first time this season. Todd Gurley was still strong though continuing his hot streak.
The receivers were decent with Jeremy Maclin, Antonio Brown and Michael Crabtree all getting scores.
This week, we see a few value targets of backup running backs getting a shot to start while still being priced too low.
As usual these prices and projections are for the Fan Duel style of play, but I have thrown in a few Draft Kings nuggets as well. The Value Factor (VF) is a quantity of the player’s projected points against the cost to put him on your roster.
Value Based Drafting Targets
Value of the Week:
DeAngelo Williams, VF : 4.38
Fun fact: Williams has actually averaged more Fantasy points per game as a starter this season than Leveon Bell (almost 22 points to 18.5). He even had 110 yards on just 13 touches in relief duty once Bell got hurt Sunday against the Bengals.
Now I know that those are small sample sizes, and that Oakland has been pretty solid against the run, but we are still talking about potentially a top-8 overall running back and his cost is just $6500 on Fan Duel. That is just the 15th most at the position and I have him scoring the second most points.
While the Raiders have been good against opposing running backs, Matt Forte still put up 155 total yards against them. Williams also had 127 yards against the Patriots, who are just behind the Raiders against the rush.
Cam Newton, VF : 3.81
Tom Brady, VF : 3.98
Tyrod Taylor, VF : 3.99
Cam Newton has been a frequent suggestion in this series and he is a solid value this week at just $7900. With six teams on bye weeks it is ludicrous that he is still the 10th highest cost especially since I have him projected to score the 3rd most points.
Brady has not been on here much because of his price… but this week he is going to be worth it. The Redskins give up the 8th highest quarterback rating to opposing quarterbacks and the 6th highest yards per attempt. I think the Patriots blow them out and Brady pads his stats.
Taylor gives you a cheap option that should be a solid baseline, with potential for a breakout should he break a couple of long runs.
Devonta Freeman, VF : 4.38
Mark Ingram, VF : 4.78
Darren McFadden, VF : 5.02
Jeremy Langford, VF : 5.09
I project Freeman to have a strong bounce back game from his sub-par showing last week and have him projected as the top scoring back this week. I have Ingram as my third highest scoring back this week and the big discrepancy between Freeman and him ($8900 to $7700) makes his value worth it.
McFadden and Langford give you two guys coming into starting roles that are not being priced as such. This type of situation has given you breakout weeks from Devonta Freeman, Karlos Williams and Thomas Rawls this season. At just $6500 and $6400 respectively on Fan Duel, the value is there to then go elite at wide receiver.
On Draft Kings, Langford’s price tag of $4000 is especially appealing. C.J. Spiller is another cheap, high risk/reward at just $3100.
Antonio Brown, VF : 4.83
Brandon LaFell, VF : 5.02
Julio Jones, VF : 5.03
Stevie Johnson, VF : 5.09
With Big Ben back and a week under his belt, I expect Brown to really bust out a big game this week. I have him as my highest scoring receiver and it’s not that close. The only person projected in the same tier is Julio Jones, and there is a significant gap between him and the rest of the pack making his high price tag still worth it.
As I said, I think Brady goes off this week and I see LaFell breaking out because of it. LaFell is averaging eight targets a game over his first couple appearances this season and I project even more against the woeful Washington secondary.
With Keenan Allen out for the season, all of Philip Rivers’ league leading passing yards need to go somewhere and I give the slight edge to Johnson over Malcom Floyd. Johnson is also priced lower, but I could even see a stack with both receivers and Rivers while going elite at running back.
LaFell and Johnson are especially juicy on Draft Kings at just $3200 each. Michael Crabtree is still super cheap on DK even though he has put up solid numbers.
Antonio Gates, VF : 5.35
Greg Olsen, VF : 5.52
With all of the byes this week, I don’t project many low-cost options this week. Both Gates and Olsen have been as consistent as Rob Gronkowski without the monster games, so I will stick to one of them getting my top-5 points at the position for 33% less the cost of Gronk.
Delanie Walker and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are a couple of lower cost values at Draft Kings, but I still might stick to one of the top tier.
My All-Value Team
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Devonta Freeman
RB: DeAngelo Williams
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Brandon LaFell
TE: Greg Olsen
D/ST: Atlanta Falcons
K: Chris Boswell
I am projecting this Brady/LaFell stack to lead the way for the three backups in primary roles (Freeman, Williams and Johnson). I love the ability to go super-elite at QB/RB1/WR1, while still elite at TE, and getting solid volume from the other skill positions.
I really like the Falcons’ defense this week because they get to face Blaine Gabbert. Usually I stay away from spending extra on the D/ST, but getting to bet against Gabbert is worth every penny.
- Early Look Ahead to the 2019 Fantasy Football Season - December 31, 2018
- Week 14 DFS Strategy: Deciphering the New Starting Running Landscape - December 9, 2018
- Week 13 DFS Strategy : The Quest For 170 Points And A Win - December 1, 2018