I had a boom or bust week with my Start-Sit predictions last week, and that is typically the way heavy bye weeks tend to go. With our second straight weekend with six teams off, the Week 9 Start-Sit plays will try to find some stability.
My Week 8 picks were 11-5-1 with nine major wins. That is probably the most major wins I have had since starting to write this article. Juju Smith-Schuster had the huge breakout that I predicted. Jerick McKinnon bounced back unlike my thought process saw.
While the huge wins are awesome, I want to provide more stability to your lineup in these heavy bye weeks. The boom-or-bust will bust too often. What most people really need is a nice, solid, high-end RB2 or a quarterback that gets them positional average points for the week.
As always I am keeping track of my predictions. Going into the Week 9 Start-Sit picks I am 84-49-4 with 54 major wins. Just a reminder, a “win” is correctly picking a start that out-performs his rankings and under-performs as a sit. A “loss” is the opposite happening. A major win is when a guy over- or under-performs by 12 or more spots.
So let’s get to the Week 9 Start-Sit plays. For our Week 9 Start-Sit projections, I am going to focus on guys ranked outside of the Top-24 RB/WRs and Top-10 QB/TEs for my Starts. I will focus on guys inside the Top-20 RB/WRs and Top-8 QB/TEs for my Sits.
Week 9 Start-Sit
(All rankings based off of the Fantasy Pros consensus PPR rankings as of 11/2)
Eli Manning in the red zone: 16/21, 140 yards, 7 TDs, 0 INTs
— Ryan Smith (@PFF_Smith) November 2, 2017
Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams (QB22)
This feels dirty. Eli has not been good. He has no healthy receivers. The Giants simply are a bad football team. And the Rams are giving up the eighth fewest points to opposing quarterbacks. However… The Rams at home vs. the Rams on the road is a totally different story. In their four home games, Los Angeles has given up less than eight Fantasy Points per game to quarterbacks. In their three road games, they have given up almost 21 points per game. Los Angeles has had some awfully good opposing quarterback luck. They have faced Scott Tolzien, Brian Hoyer, Blake Bortles and Drew Stanton. Now I’m not saying Eli will be a high-end QB1, but he will be start-able.
Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (QB15)
On the other end of the sideline, the Giants have given up 22-plus Fantasy Points to opposing quarterbacks over their last four games.
Jerry Jones says Alfred Morris will receive the bulk of the carries if Zeke is gone. pic.twitter.com/qyW77JDtwy
— ✭Cowboys News✭ (@DemBoyz_News) October 31, 2017
Alfred Morris, RB, Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs (RB29)
Everyone had assumed Darren McFadden would take over the lead role once Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension started. Jason Garrett has said it will be a combination of all three backs. I think Morris gets the most touches and production though.
DeAndre Washington, RB, Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (RB41)
Even with Marshawn Lynch back, I think Washington has earned a larger role. He had eight catches last week for 62 yards and a score. With Jalen Richard’s fumble issues, Washington will garner the most touches out of the Raiders’ backfield.
Robby Anderson, WR, New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (WR25)
Anderson has increased his Fantasy production four weeks in a row. The peak was his 6-catch, 104-yard and one score game last week against the Falcons. Josh McCown has looked more and more comfortable at quarterback for the Jets and Anderson is by far his number-one target now.
Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (WR31)
Jamison Crowder tied his career high with nine catches against the Cowboys, and set a new one with 123 yards. He played 94.9 % of the snaps.
— Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) October 30, 2017
The Seahawks’ secondary is not the Legion of Boom anymore. They are giving up the 14th most Fantasy Points to opposing wide receivers. It looks like Kirk Cousins and Crowder have figured something out after Crowder’s huge game last weekend.
Tyler Kroft, TE, Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (TE13)
Kroft has become a reliable tight end option. He has at least three catches in each of his last five games. Andy Dalton will feel the heat with the great Jaguars’ pass rush and Kroft could stand to benefit from quite a few dump-offs.
Oakland Raiders D/ST at Miami Dolphins (DST16) and San Francisco 49ers D/ST vs. Arizona Cardinals (DST17)
Give me any defense facing the Dolphins or Cardinals for the rest of the season.
Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Denver Broncos (QB6)
While Wentz does have four straight games with multiple touchdown passes, the Broncos are a different animal. They can play man coverage with their corners and get even more pressure on Wentz. I’m not sure how the Eagles are going to work Jay Ajayi in, but I doubt it helps this week.
Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (RB19)
Once again, Abdullah is being over-ranked. I know, there are not a ton of viable Fantasy options on these heavy bye weeks, but Abdullah is not the answer. The Detroit Lion has just 16.6 PPR points, total, since Week Four. It is Week 9.
Javorius Allen, RB, Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (RB20)
So with Alex Collins breaking out last week, he is firmly ranked as an RB2. Are we seriously thinking the Ravens can have two running backs not named Danny Woodhead in the Top 20 at the position? One of Allen or Collins will fall flat Sunday, and my money is on Allen.
Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs (WR5)
So the last three elite corners that Dez Bryant faced were Josh Norman, Patrick Peterson and Janoris Jenkins (loosely elite on the last guy). His numbers: eight catches for 94 yards. Combined. If Dez does not get a score, he won’t even be worth a start let along a Top-5 option.
Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (WR17)
It pains me as a Nelson-owner to say this but I am not sure he is worth starting. He definitely is not until Brett Hundley at least proves he can get Nelson the ball more. One single catch against the Saints?! The immediate future is not looking good.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (TE7)
ASJ will stay in the “Sit” section until he is ranked where he should be. Even with the tight ends on bye week, ASJ is too touchdown-dependent.
That’s it for the Week 9 Start-Sit predictions! If you have any other questions, please hit me up on Twitter, @Tomlin3 !
- Early Look Ahead to the 2019 Fantasy Football Season - December 31, 2018
- Week 14 DFS Strategy: Deciphering the New Starting Running Landscape - December 9, 2018
- Week 13 DFS Strategy : The Quest For 170 Points And A Win - December 1, 2018